Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TKO] TKO Group Thesis 2026: UFC Paramount Deal Tests Combat Sports Media Rights Cycle
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TKO) FY2025 revenue ~$3.0-3.2B (+15-20%) with adj. EPS ~$3.50-5.50 reflecting continued post-September 2023 TKO merger of UFC + WWE + selected October 2025 announced UFC Paramount media rights deal ~$7.7B/7-year (~2x step-up vs prior ESPN+) + selected January 2025 Netflix Raw $5B/10-year deal launch (~2x step-up vs USA Network) + selected ~$200-300M cost synergies achieved + selected combat sports media rights premium under continued CEO Mark Shapiro (~2-year tenure since September 2023). Leading global combat sports + entertainment firm formed September 12, 2023 via merger of Endeavor Group Holdings's UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) + WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment). Selected post-merger ~$21B aggregate transaction value (~$9B Endeavor's UFC + ~$9B WWE + selected $4B leverage); 51%+ Endeavor Group post-merger ownership control with selected ~49% legacy WWE shareholders. Headquartered in New York New York; ~1,000+ employees globally with ~$3.0-3.2B revenue. Three reporting segments: UFC ~50% revenue ($1.5B — premier MMA promotion + selected ~$5-7B aggregate media rights deals + ~$200M+ event revenue PPV + live gates + ~$300M+ sponsorship + ~$100M+ apparel/merchandise; ~700M global UFC fan reach), WWE ~40% ($1.2B — sports entertainment promotion + ~$500M annualized Netflix Raw deal post-January 2025 + ~$300M+ live event revenue + ~$200M+ sponsorship + ~$100M+ merchandise; ~80M+ global WWE fan reach), IMG/On Location ~10% ($300M — experiential events + premium hospitality post-2023 IMG acquisition). October 2025 UFC Paramount media rights deal: announced ~$7.7B/7-year (~$1.1B annualized vs prior ESPN+ ~$550M annualized = ~2x step-up); Paramount+ + CBS/MTV cable distribution; FY2026 catalyst: Paramount deal launch + ESPN+ legacy fan migration + ~$500-600M annualized incremental UFC revenue. January 6, 2025 WWE Netflix Raw deal: launched ~$5B/10-year (~$500M annualized vs USA Network ~$265M annualized = ~89% step-up); first major US weekly live sports on Netflix; FY2026 expected WWE toward $1.4-1.6B (+15-25%) on full-year Netflix Raw + continued Friday Night SmackDown USA Network + Premium Live Events Peacock. CEO Mark Shapiro since September 2023 (succeeded Ari Emanuel Endeavor CEO who became Executive Chairman; Shapiro ex-Endeavor President + COO 2014-2023 + ex-ESPN/Disney + ~25-year sports media career; concurrent President + COO + Director). Endeavor Group parent ~51%+ ownership control via April 2024 Endeavor take-private deal $13B led by Silver Lake. Capital return: ~$1.60-1.76 annual dividend FY2025 (~$0.40-0.44/quarter; ~2 year track post-merger); $1-2B buyback program FY2025; investment-grade Ba2/BB+ credit ratings; FCF $0.7-1.0B. FY2026 thesis: UFC Paramount deal launch + WWE Netflix Raw full-year + ~3-year dividend track + capital return acceleration. Risks: UFC viewership transition challenges, major fighter contract disputes, WWE talent retention, Endeavor Group governance disputes.