Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SW] Smurfit Westrock Thesis 2026: Combined EBITDA Surpasses Five Billion in First Full Year
Smurfit Westrock plc FY25 (first full year as combined Smurfit Kappa + WestRock) revenue $28.27B (+39%); op income $1.60B; NI $660M; EPS $1.23. FY adj EBITDA $4.939B (margin ~17.5%); Q4 adj EBITDA $1.172B. Regional dynamics: North America Q4 EBITDA $651M (14.7% margin); Europe Q4 $438M (margin >16% expanding); Latin America Q4 $130M+ (margin >24% — highest). FY adj FCF >$1.5B; Q4 $679M. Leverage reduced to 2.6x (target 2x); successful refinancings + bond redemptions. Dividend +5% (key pillar). Closure of SBS machine in La Tuque Quebec (portfolio optimization). Recognized leader (Forbes, Fortune, Time, 230+ awards). FY26 guide: Q1 adj EBITDA $1.1-$1.2B; FY adj EBITDA $5.0-$5.3B (+1-7%). Medium-term plan: $7B adj EBITDA by 2030 (7% CAGR + >300bp margin expansion).