Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SUZ] Suzano Thesis 2026: BHKP Pulp Cycle Drives Cerrado Capacity Capital Return
Suzano S.A. (NYSE: SUZ; B3: SUZB3) FY2025 revenue ~R$58-62B / ~$10.5-11.2B (+25-35% YoY in BRL) with adj. EPS ~R$5.50-6.50 / ~$1.00-1.18 reflecting continued post-2024 ~R$50-54B aggregate Pulp revenue (~85%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary BHKP — Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp from eucalyptus) + selected continued post-2024 ~R$8-9B aggregate Paper revenue (~15% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Beto Abreu since January 2024 (~2-year tenure; selected post-January 2019 Suzano Papel + Fibria merger + selected post-July 2024 Cerrado Project commercial operations). The largest global Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) producer + Latin America paper producer. Founded 1924 as Companhia Suzano de Papel e Celulose by Leon Feffer in Suzano, São Paulo, Brazil (~101-year heritage); selected post-January 2019 ~R$30B+ Suzano Papel e Celulose + Fibria Celulose merger; selected post-2019 NYSE listing; selected post-July 2024 Cerrado Project ($3.7B+ CapEx; 2.55Mt) commercial operations; selected post-January 2024 Beto Abreu CEO appointment. Headquartered in São Paulo Brazil; ~32,000+ employees globally with ~R$58-62B revenue. Two primary business segments: Pulp (~85%+ ~R$50-54B), Paper (~15% ~R$8-9B). Geographic mix: Pulp ~70%+ revenue export (China + Asia Pacific + Europe) + Paper ~85%+ Brazil; aggregate ~50% export + ~50% Brazil. BHKP Pulp cycle: ~13.0-14.0Mt aggregate annual Pulp production capacity; ~30%+ aggregate global BHKP market share; ~$200-250/t aggregate cash cost (selected lowest-cost-quartile); ~$550-650/t aggregate Hardwood pulp realized price. Cerrado capacity + post-July 2024 commercial operations: ~$3.7B aggregate Cerrado CapEx; 2.55Mt aggregate Cerrado annual Pulp production capacity addition; ~$200-250/t aggregate Cerrado lowest-cost-quartile cash cost positioning. President + CEO Beto Abreu since January 2024 (~2-year tenure); CFO Marcelo Bacci. Capital return: ~R$3.50 annual dividend FY2025 (~5-year continuous dividend track post-January 2019 Suzano + Fibria merger); ~R$5-10B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~R$3-5B aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~R$8-12B / ~$1.5-2.2B FY2025; net leverage ratio ~3.5-4.0x; investment-grade Baa3/BBB credit rating; selected ~31%+ aggregate Feffer family + Brazilian aggregate ownership concentration. FY2026 thesis: BHKP Pulp cycle + Cerrado capacity + post-July 2024 commercial operations + ~R$3.50 annual dividend + ~5-year continuous dividend track + ~R$8-13B aggregate annual capital return + selected projected post-2026 deleveraging trajectory. Risks: Klabin + International Paper + Stora Enso + UPM + Metsä Fibre + Empresas CMPC + Arauco competition, Hardwood pulp price cycle, China + Asia Pacific demand cycle, Cerrado ramp-up considerations, Brazilian Real FX volatility, sustained ~3.5-4.0x net leverage.