Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SR] Spire Inc. Thesis 2026: Pipeline Replacement Capex Sustains Multi-Year Rate Base Growth
Spire Inc. FY2025 (Sep 2025) adj. EPS ~$4.85 with rate base growing to ~$8.65B (+10% YoY) on ~$795M capex deployed across MO/AL/MS pipeline replacement programs. Dividend $3.105 covered at ~60-65% payout ratio. Missouri rate case filed mid-2025 seeking ~$290M annual revenue increase — outcome FY2026 critical for capex deployment continuity. FY2026 thesis: rate case constructive outcome (allowed ROE ~9.75-10%) sustains capex pace; rate base toward $9.5B; adj. EPS toward $5.10-5.40; dividend growth ~4-7% annually; key terminal-value risk: state-level building electrification policies (none in MO/AL/MS but federal direction creates uncertainty).