Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SPOT] Spotify Thesis 2026: Profitability Arrives as Subscriber Growth Continues
Spotify FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $17.19B revenue (+10% USD / +12% cc). Premium $15.3B (+14%), Ad $1.9B (+4%). Net income $2.21B (+94%); Diluted EPS $10.51. OpInc $2.20B (12.8% margin). FCF $2.87B (+26%). Subscribers 281M (+12%); MAU 713M end-Q4 (+17M QoQ). $439M buybacks (3x FY24); $0 dividends. Q1 FY26 guide: 759M MAU, 293M subs, $4.5B revenue (+15%). 7 analysts: 6 Buy / 1 Hold; consensus $620.71, range $525-$745. Feb 2026 earnings PT cuts: Guggenheim $750→$600, Keybanc $830→$745, Cantor $615→$525.