The Southern Company (SO) Stock Analysis

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[SO] Southern Company Thesis 2026: Commercial Load Growth Accelerates on Mega Deals

Southern Company FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $29.55B revenue (+10.6%). GA Power commercial sales +17% YoY for 2 consecutive years on data-center customers. Industrial sales +1.4%; Residential +39K electric customers. Q3 FY25: 4 large-load >2GW contracts signed in 2 months. GA Power load forecast supports 10 GW capacity need. Adjusted EPS $4.30 (top of FY25 guide, +6%). Diluted EPS GAAP $3.92. Net income $4.34B. Capex $13.4B (+50%); OCF $9.80B; FCF -$3.59B (capex acceleration). Equity ATM $1.8B + debt $4B issued Q3. Dividends $3.02B; zero buybacks. Total debt $65.8B. 10 analysts: 3 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell; consensus $102.50, range $92-$112. 4 upgrades Feb-March: Wells UW→EW, Mizuho N→OP, Keybanc UW→SW, Evercore I-L→OP.

Research · Apr 13, 2026

Goldman Sachs Natural Gas Warning: EQT Up 73%, But SO Faces Margin Squeeze

Goldman Sachs' supply crunch warning spotlights natgas winners like EQT and COP for production gains, midstream KMI/WMB for volumes, versus utility loser SO facing fuel cost pain. Backed by FY2025 financials showing EQT's 73% revenue surge and strong FCF across winners.

Research · Mar 12, 2026

Can Century's Mt. Holly restart reach full capacity on schedule given US power cost volatility?

Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly restart to full 230,000-tonne capacity targets end of June 2026, backed by an extended Santee Cooper power contract through 2031 at cost-of-service rates that insulates against the worst of US power volatility. With $135.6M in cash and Q1 FY2026 EBITDA guided at $215–235M, the $50M project appears well-funded, though operational execution and aluminum price risk remain the key variables to watch.