Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SMR] NuScale Power Thesis 2026: A Small-Modular-Nuclear-Reactor Compounder Rides AI-Data-Center-Power
NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR), headquartered in Portland, Oregon, is a small-modular-nuclear-reactor SMR developer + emerging-DOE-and-emerging-utility-SMR-customer leader providing distinctive multi-cycle NuScale-Power SMR-Design-and-Engineering-and-Licensing-Fees + emerging-Other services to emerging-DOE + emerging-Department-of-Defense-DoD + emerging-utility-SMR-customer + emerging-AI-data-center-power-customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle Fluor-Corporation-and-NuScale-Power heritage: founded 2007 as NuScale-Power-Oregon-State-University-spinoff; 2011 substantial Fluor-Corporation-investment + Fluor-Corporation-and-NuScale-Power-partnership; multi-cycle 2011-2022 private-stage NuScale-Power; September 2020 substantial NRC-Standard-Design-Approval-NuScale-Power-Module-50MWe (first-NRC-approved-SMR-design); May 2022 NYSE NuScale-Power-Spring-Valley-SPAC-merger; November 2023 substantial Carbon-Free-Power-Project-Utah-Associated-Municipal-Power-Systems-UAMPS-NuScale-cancellation; 2024 emerging-multi-cycle-NRC-NuScale-77MWe-design-approval; 2018 John Hopkins CEO appointment. Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 2007-2011 NuScale-Power-Oregon-State-University-spinoff platform; 2011 substantial Fluor-Corporation-investment; 2011-2022 private-stage NuScale-Power; September 2020 NRC-50MWe-Standard-Design-Approval; May 2022 NYSE NuScale-Power-Spring-Valley-SPAC-merger; 2023 UAMPS-cancellation; 2018 John Hopkins CEO; 2024 emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-AI-data-center-power-and-NVIDIA-and-Microsoft-and-Amazon-and-Alphabet-Google-driven multi-cycle-emerging-nuclear-renaissance-and-SMR + emerging-DOE-and-DoD-SMR-funding. Under CEO John Hopkins (since 2018, ~7+ year longtime Fluor-Corporation executive) + Fluor-Corporation parent ~30-35% Fluor-controlling-equity, FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$30-80M, adj. EBITDA ~$-100-(-200)M, adj. EPS ~$-0.40-(-0.80), net cash ~$400-550M, and ~270-290M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — SMR-Design-and-Engineering-and-Licensing + emerging-utility-and-DoD-and-AI-data-center-power franchise — covers entire small-modular-nuclear-reactor SMR developer + emerging-DOE-and-emerging-utility-SMR-customer + emerging-AI-data-center-power business + NuScale-Power-and-emerging-NuScale-Power positioning. Geographic + Pipeline composition: Portland-OR-NuScale-flagship-SMR-design-and-engineering + emerging-NRC-and-emerging-DOE-licensing. Revenue mix: SMR-Design-and-Engineering-and-Licensing-Fees ~50-80% (emerging-SMR-design-licensing + emerging-Fluor-Corporation-partnership + emerging-RoPower-Romania + KGHM-Polska-Miedz-Poland + Standard-Power-Ohio + emerging-DOE-and-DoD customer-pipeline); Emerging-Other ~20-50%. Customer base: emerging-DOE + emerging-DoD + emerging-utility-SMR-customer (RoPower-Romania-Nuclearelectrica-and-Romgaz + KGHM-Polska-Miedz-Poland + Standard-Power-and-NuScale-Ohio) + emerging-AI-data-center-power-customer (Microsoft + Alphabet-Google + Amazon-AWS + Meta + Oracle). 2020-NRC-50MWe-Standard-Design-Approval (first-NRC-approved-SMR-design) + 2024-emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval. Competes with TerraPower (private + Bill-Gates-Bechtel + emerging-Natrium-reactor most-direct-TerraPower-advanced-nuclear-reactor-comp), X-energy (private + Amazon-stake-2024 + emerging-Xe-100-reactor most-direct-X-energy-Amazon-AI-data-center-power-comp), Oklo (OKLO + Sam-Altman-OpenAI-founder-related most-direct-Oklo-advanced-nuclear-reactor-comp), Kairos Power (private + KP-FHR-reactor + emerging-Kairos-Power-Alphabet-Google-AI-data-center-power-deal most-direct-Kairos-Power-Alphabet-Google-AI-data-center-power-comp), GE Hitachi Nuclear (GE Vernova GEV most-direct-GE-Hitachi-Nuclear-BWRX-300-comp), Westinghouse Electric (private + Brookfield-Cameco-acquired most-direct-Westinghouse-AP300-comp), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Centrus Energy (LEU), Last Energy (private), Aalo Atomics (private), Radiant Industries (private); utility-and-AI-data-center-customers Constellation Energy (CEG largest-US-nuclear-utility), Vistra (VST), Duke Energy (DUK), Talen Energy (TLN + Amazon-Susquehanna-Nuclear-deal-2024), Southern Company (SO), American Electric Power (AEP), DTE Energy (DTE), Microsoft (MSFT + Microsoft-Three-Mile-Island-Constellation-deal-2024 most-direct-Microsoft-AI-data-center-power-comp), Amazon (AMZN + Amazon-Talen-Susquehanna-Nuclear-deal-2024 + Amazon-X-energy-deal-2024), Alphabet-Google (GOOGL + Alphabet-Google-Kairos-Power-AI-data-center-power-deal-2024), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL); uranium-and-fuel customers Cameco (CCJ), Kazatomprom (KAP-LSE), Centrus Energy (LEU), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Uranium Energy (UEC). The second deep-dive — John-Hopkins + Fluor-Corporation-Parent-Controlling + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers John-Hopkins-CEO + Fluor-Corporation + multi-cycle-nuclear-and-emerging-NuScale-Power expertise, Fluor-Corporation parent ~30-35% Fluor-controlling-equity, 2007-NuScale-Power-Oregon-State-University-spinoff + 2011-Fluor-Corporation-investment + September-2020-NRC-50MWe-Standard-Design-Approval + May-2022-NYSE-NuScale-Power-Spring-Valley-SPAC-merger + 2024-emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval transformational-platform, emerging-US-and-international-nuclear-renaissance + emerging-AI-data-center-power-and-NVIDIA-and-Microsoft-and-Amazon-and-Alphabet-Google-driven multi-cycle-emerging-SMR-demand + emerging-DOE-and-DoD-SMR-funding structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle-clinical-stage-and-emerging-investment-focused: no-regular-dividend + no-buyback. Multi-decade compounder thesis combines Fluor-Corporation-and-NuScale-Power ~18+ year heritage (founded 2007), Portland-OR-NuScale-flagship-SMR-design-and-engineering, 2007-spinoff + 2011-Fluor-investment + 2020-NRC-50MWe + 2022-NYSE-SPAC-merger + 2024-emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval, John Hopkins + Fluor-Corporation expertise, no-regular-dividend + no-buyback + non-IG balance-sheet (multi-cycle-clinical-stage-pre-revenue + emerging-substantial-strategic-acquisition-target potential), emerging-US-and-international-nuclear-renaissance + emerging-AI-data-center-power + emerging-DOE-and-DoD-SMR-funding + emerging-multi-jurisdiction-utility-SMR + emerging-substantial-strategic-acquisition-target structural-tailwinds. Capital position is post-NYSE-SPAC-merger non-IG (B/B-), no-regular-dividend, no-buyback, multi-cycle-cash-positive: net cash ~$400-550M (zero-leverage), B/B- equivalent, $400-550M cash + securities liquidity, FCF ~$-100-(-180)M/yr deployed into capex ~$30-80M/yr + no dividend + no buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + emerging-DOE-and-DoD-and-utility-SMR-customer-investment capex, ~270-290M shares + Fluor-Corporation ~30-35% controlling-equity. At ~$25-65 per share, equity value ~$6.8-18.8B, EV ~$6.4-18.4B (net cash), N/M EPS and N/M EV/EBITDA. Base case: emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval constructive + emerging-DOE-and-utility-SMR-customer-order-pipeline + emerging-Fluor-Corporation-partnership + emerging-clinical-stage-revenue + multi-cycle-clinical-stage-runway + ~5-30% return. Bull case: emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval accelerates + emerging-DOE-and-utility-SMR-customer-order-pipeline inflects-substantially (AI-data-center-power-and-Microsoft-Constellation-Three-Mile-Island-and-Amazon-Talen-Susquehanna-and-Alphabet-Google-Kairos-Power-precedent-driven multi-cycle-emerging-SMR-customer-pipeline) + emerging-Fluor-Corporation-partnership + emerging-AI-data-center-power-PPA inflects + emerging-DOE-and-DoD-funding inflects + emerging-substantial-strategic-acquisition-target (Microsoft + Amazon + Alphabet + Constellation + Vistra + Talen-Energy + Duke + Southern + Westinghouse + GE-Hitachi-GE-Vernova + Brookfield-Cameco-Westinghouse interest substantial-emerging-strategic-acquisition-target) + re-rate substantial + 100-300%+ return + substantial takeout-premium-upside. Bear case: emerging-NRC-77MWe-design-approval disappoints + emerging-DOE-and-utility-SMR-customer-order-pipeline disappoints + emerging-Fluor-Corporation-partnership-stresses + emerging-AI-data-center-power-PPA disappoints + adj. EBITDA $-200-(-300)M + adj. EPS $-0.80-(-1.20) + substantial-de-rate (50-80% decline + clinical-stage-binary-outcome-risk) + flat-to-substantially-negative-return.