Research · Sep 3, 2026
[RHP] Ryman Hospitality Properties Thesis 2026: Gaylord Group Resorts Plus Opry Entertainment Drive Convention REIT
Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (NYSE: RHP) is a US lodging real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in Nashville, tracing its roots to Gaylord Entertainment Company and converting to a REIT in 2012 (with a Marriott management agreement for the Gaylord Hotels brand). RHP enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue ~$2.4-2.7B (+5-12% YoY off $2.34B FY2024) and adj. FFO/share ~$8.00-9.50, reflecting ~$2.0-2.3B aggregate Hospitality (Gaylord Hotels) revenue + ~$0.35-0.50B aggregate Entertainment (Opry Entertainment Group) revenue, all under Chairman + CEO Colin Reed (CEO since ~2001, ~24+ year tenure as the architect of the Gaylord convention-resort REIT model, the 2012 REIT conversion and the Opry Entertainment Group buildout), with President Mark Fioravanti as President + CEO designate. The first thesis pillar is the Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline (~$2.0-2.3B revenue, ~83-87% revenue mix): the Gaylord-branded all-under-one-roof convention/group resorts — Gaylord Opryland Nashville, Gaylord Palms Orlando, Gaylord Texan Grapevine Dallas, Gaylord National Harbor Washington DC, Gaylord Rockies Aurora Denver, JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country, plus Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego (~1,600 rooms; ~2025 opening) — ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate, Marriott-managed, ~70-75% group + ~25-30% transient mix, riding the post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery (post-2020-2022 pandemic disruption, post-2023-2025 group booking pace recovery, strong forward group revenue on the books, banquet/catering and ancillary spend recovery) with RevPAR and Total RevPAR growth; FY2026 catalyst is ~$2.1-2.5B Hospitality revenue at ~28-36% adj. EBITDA margin. The second pillar is the Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline (~$0.35-0.50B revenue, ~13-17% revenue mix): the Grand Ole Opry, Ryman Auditorium, Ole Red venues (Nashville, Gatlinburg, Orlando, Tishomingo), WSM-AM radio, Block 21/ACL Live/W Austin and Category 10 Nashville, with an Atairos/NBCUniversal minority partnership, riding Nashville tourism and country-music tailwinds; FY2026 catalyst is ~$0.38-0.55B Entertainment revenue plus strategic value crystallization (potential separation/IPO/monetization optionality). The capital story: ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend (~4-6% yield; REIT distribution requirement; quarterly; ~80-95% AFFO payout), opportunistic buybacks, ~$3.0-3.8B net debt, ~4.5-5.5x net debt/EBITDA, BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 credit profile, ~58-62M diluted shares/units, ~$0.5-1.0B liquidity; deleveraging on EBITDA growth and Gaylord Pacific capex completion are the FY2026 levers. At ~$90-130 per share on ~58-62M shares (~$5-8B equity, ~$8-11B EV) RHP trades at ~9-13x P/AFFO and ~10-14x EV/EBITDA versus lodging REITs Host Hotels & Resorts, Park Hotels & Resorts, Pebblebrook, Sunstone, Xenia, DiamondRock, RLJ and Apple Hospitality, with Live Nation and MSG Entertainment as Opry Entertainment Group comps. FY2026 base case is ~$2.5-3.0B revenue + ~$8.50-10.50 adj. FFO/share + ~$0.7-0.9B adj. EBITDAre + ~4.0-5.5x net debt/EBITDA; bull case ~$2.8-3.3B revenue + ~$10.00-12.00 adj. FFO/share on group/convention recovery acceleration plus Opry Entertainment Group crystallization; bear case ~$2.3-2.6B revenue + ~$7.50-8.80 adj. FFO/share on group/convention demand cycle weakness, Gaylord Pacific ramp execution, labor cost pressure, new supply, interest-rate/refinancing pressure and CEO-transition considerations. The thesis depends on the Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline plus the Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline plus ~70-75% group mix plus the post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery plus the Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista ramp plus the ~$4.00-4.80 dividend plus deleveraging and the Colin Reed to Mark Fioravanti transition.