[RHP] Ryman Hospitality Properties Thesis 2026: Gaylord Group Resorts Plus Opry Entertainment Drive Convention REIT

Key Takeaways

• RHP FY2025 revenue ~$2.4-2.7B (+5-12% YoY) with adj. FFO/share ~$8.00-9.50 reflecting continued ~$2.0-2.3B aggregate Hospitality (Gaylord Hotels) revenue + ~$0.35-0.50B aggregate Entertainment (Opry Entertainment Group) revenue + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery + selected various aggregate ~rooms revenue + banquet/catering + ancillary spend under continued Chairman + CEO Colin Reed (~24+ year tenure as Ryman/Gaylord Entertainment CEO since ~2001; selected primary architect of the Gaylord-branded convention resort REIT model + selected post-2012 REIT conversion + selected post-2018-2022 Opry Entertainment Group buildout + selected various aggregate Marriott management partnership + selected various aggregate transition planning toward President Mark Fioravanti — President + CEO designate; selected primary architect of post-2024-2025 capital allocation + portfolio strategy).
• Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort Pipeline (~$2.0-2.3B Revenue): ~$2.0-2.3B aggregate Hospitality revenue (aggregate ~83-87% revenue mix); selected primary Gaylord Hotels portfolio (selected primary Gaylord Opryland Nashville + Gaylord Palms Orlando + Gaylord Texan Grapevine Dallas + Gaylord National Harbor Washington DC + Gaylord Rockies Aurora Denver + selected various aggregate JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country + selected various aggregate ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate + selected various aggregate ~all-under-one-roof large-scale convention/group meeting design + selected various aggregate Marriott-managed) + selected various aggregate group/convention revenue mix (~70-75% group + ~25-30% transient/leisure) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery (selected primary post-2020-2022 pandemic disruption + selected post-2023-2025 group booking pace recovery + selected various aggregate ~forward group revenue on the books + selected various aggregate banquet/catering + ancillary spend recovery) + selected various aggregate ~RevPAR + Total RevPAR growth + selected various aggregate Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego (selected various aggregate ~1,600 rooms aggregate development + selected various aggregate ~2025 opening).
• Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group Pipeline (~$0.35-0.50B Revenue + Strategic Catalyst): ~$0.35-0.50B aggregate Entertainment revenue (aggregate ~13-17% revenue mix); selected primary Opry Entertainment Group (selected primary Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium Nashville + selected various aggregate Ole Red restaurant/entertainment venues (Nashville + Gatlinburg + Orlando + Tishomingo + selected various aggregate) + selected various aggregate WSM-AM radio + selected various aggregate Block 21 / ACL Live / W Austin + selected various aggregate Category 10 Nashville + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + hospitality venue portfolio + selected various aggregate Atairos / NBCUniversal minority partnership) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 Entertainment revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + venue + restaurant + media demand + selected various aggregate ~Nashville tourism + country music tailwind + selected various aggregate Opry Entertainment Group strategic value crystallization (selected primary potential separation/IPO/monetization optionality + selected various aggregate Atairos partnership).
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend (~4-6% aggregate yield; selected primary REIT distribution requirement + selected various aggregate quarterly dividend + selected various aggregate ~80-95% AFFO payout) + selected various aggregate ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~$3.0-3.8B + selected primary ~4.5-5.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA + BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade) + ~58-62M aggregate diluted shares/units + weighted average debt maturity ~4-6 years.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline (~$2.0-2.3B + Gaylord Opryland + Palms + Texan + National Harbor + Rockies + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista + ~9,000-10,000+ rooms + 70-75% group mix + post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery + forward group revenue on the books + RevPAR/Total RevPAR growth + Marriott-managed) + Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline ($0.35-0.50B + Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium + Ole Red + WSM-AM + Block 21/ACL Live + Category 10 + live entertainment growth + Nashville tourism tailwind + Atairos partnership + monetization optionality) + ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend + ~4.5-5.5x net debt/EBITDA + Colin Reed → Mark Fioravanti leadership transition + group/convention demand recovery + Gaylord Pacific ramp execution.

Company Background

Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (NYSE: RHP) is a US lodging real estate investment trust (REIT), tracing roots to Gaylord Entertainment Company (selected primary post-1991 spin-off heritage + selected various aggregate Opryland USA + Grand Ole Opry heritage) and converting to a REIT in 2012 (selected post-2012 REIT conversion + selected post-2012 Marriott management agreement for the Gaylord Hotels brand + selected various aggregate name change from Gaylord Entertainment to Ryman Hospitality Properties). Selected post-2012 NYSE listing as Ryman Hospitality Properties; selected post-2018-2025 Opry Entertainment Group buildout (selected various aggregate Ole Red + WSM + Block 21 / ACL Live + Category 10 + Atairos / NBCUniversal minority partnership 2022); selected post-2024-2025 Colin Reed → Mark Fioravanti CEO transition (selected primary Colin Reed Chairman + CEO since ~2001 (~24+ year tenure) + selected post-2024-2025 Mark Fioravanti President + CEO designate); HQ Nashville Tennessee; ~700-1,000 corporate employees (~hotel staff Marriott-managed).

RHP operates 2 segments: Hospitality (~83-87% revenue mix; ~$2.0-2.3B; Gaylord-branded large-scale convention/group resort hotels — Gaylord Opryland Nashville + Gaylord Palms Orlando + Gaylord Texan Grapevine Dallas + Gaylord National Harbor Washington DC + Gaylord Rockies Aurora Denver + JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego pending; ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate; Marriott-managed; ~70-75% group + ~25-30% transient mix) + Entertainment (~13-17% revenue mix; ~$0.35-0.50B; Opry Entertainment Group — Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium + Ole Red + WSM-AM + Block 21/ACL Live/W Austin + Category 10; Atairos/NBCUniversal minority partnership). Geographic mix: predominantly US (Nashville TN + Orlando FL + Dallas TX + Washington DC area + Denver CO + San Antonio TX + San Diego CA + Austin TX). Group/convention revenue mix: ~70-75% aggregate Hospitality.

Capital position: ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend (~4-6% aggregate yield; REIT distribution requirement; quarterly; ~80-95% AFFO payout) + ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~$3.0-3.8B + ~4.5-5.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA + BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 credit profile + ~58-62M aggregate diluted shares/units.

Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort Pipeline (~$2.0-2.3B Revenue)

The Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline is RHP's foundation thesis: ~$2.0-2.3B aggregate Hospitality revenue (aggregate ~83-87% revenue mix); selected primary Gaylord Hotels portfolio (selected primary Gaylord Opryland Nashville + Gaylord Palms Orlando + Gaylord Texan Grapevine Dallas + Gaylord National Harbor Washington DC + Gaylord Rockies Aurora Denver + selected various aggregate JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country + selected various aggregate ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate + selected various aggregate ~all-under-one-roof large-scale convention/group meeting design + selected various aggregate Marriott-managed) + selected various aggregate group/convention revenue mix (~70-75% group + ~25-30% transient/leisure) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery (selected primary post-2020-2022 pandemic disruption + selected post-2023-2025 group booking pace recovery + selected various aggregate ~forward group revenue on the books + selected various aggregate banquet/catering + ancillary spend recovery) + selected various aggregate ~RevPAR + Total RevPAR growth + selected various aggregate Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego (selected various aggregate ~1,600 rooms aggregate development + selected various aggregate ~2025 opening).

FY2025 Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort dynamics ($2.0-2.3B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+4-12% aggregate Hospitality revenue growth (selected primary post-2023-2025 group/convention demand recovery + selected various aggregate ~forward group revenue on the books + selected various aggregate banquet/catering + ancillary spend recovery + selected various aggregate ~RevPAR + Total RevPAR growth + selected various aggregate Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego ramp + selected various aggregate ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate + selected various aggregate Marriott-managed) + ~$2.0-2.3B aggregate Hospitality revenue + selected various aggregate ~28-34% aggregate Hospitality adj. EBITDA margin. Selected post-2024 ~$6.50-8.00 aggregate annual FFO/share contribution as Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline drives the dominant FFO base.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline + ~$6.50-8.00 aggregate FFO/share contribution under the Colin Reed → Mark Fioravanti leadership transition. Selected aggregate ~$2.1-2.5B aggregate FY2026 Hospitality revenue + selected various ~+4-12% aggregate growth + selected various aggregate ~70-75% group mix + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery continuation + selected various aggregate ~forward group revenue on the books + selected various aggregate banquet/catering + ancillary spend + selected various aggregate ~RevPAR + Total RevPAR growth + selected various aggregate Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego full-year ramp + selected various aggregate ~9,000-10,000+ rooms aggregate + selected various aggregate ~28-36% aggregate Hospitality adj. EBITDA margin. Risks: Host Hotels & Resorts (HST, ~$10-14B Mcap; lodging REIT — group/convention exposure) + Park Hotels & Resorts (PK, ~$2-4B; lodging REIT) + Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO, ~$2-3B; lodging REIT) + DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT — group/convention) + RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + Marriott / Hilton / Hyatt branded convention hotels + selected various aggregate large-group convention hotel + destination resort competitive considerations + group/convention demand cycle considerations (corporate meetings + association events + trade shows budget cycle) + leisure/transient demand cycle considerations + Marriott management agreement considerations + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego ramp execution + new supply considerations + labor cost considerations + interest rate / debt refinancing considerations + REIT distribution requirement considerations.

Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group Pipeline (~$0.35-0.50B Revenue + Strategic Catalyst)

The Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline is RHP's primary growth + crystallization thesis: ~$0.35-0.50B aggregate Entertainment revenue (aggregate ~13-17% revenue mix); selected primary Opry Entertainment Group (selected primary Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium Nashville + selected various aggregate Ole Red restaurant/entertainment venues (Nashville + Gatlinburg + Orlando + Tishomingo + selected various aggregate) + selected various aggregate WSM-AM radio + selected various aggregate Block 21 / ACL Live / W Austin + selected various aggregate Category 10 Nashville + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + hospitality venue portfolio + selected various aggregate Atairos / NBCUniversal minority partnership) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 Entertainment revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + venue + restaurant + media demand + selected various aggregate ~Nashville tourism + country music tailwind + selected various aggregate Opry Entertainment Group strategic value crystallization (selected primary potential separation/IPO/monetization optionality + selected various aggregate Atairos partnership).

FY2025 Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group dynamics: selected primary ~$0.35-0.50B aggregate Entertainment revenue + selected various aggregate Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium + Ole Red venues + WSM-AM radio + Block 21/ACL Live + Category 10 Nashville + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + venue + restaurant + media demand + selected various aggregate ~Nashville tourism + country music tailwind + selected various aggregate Atairos/NBCUniversal minority partnership + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 Entertainment revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~22-30% aggregate Entertainment adj. EBITDA margin. Selected post-2024 ~$1.00-1.50 aggregate annual FFO/share contribution as Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline drives incremental FFO + crystallization optionality.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline + ~$1.00-1.50 aggregate FFO/share contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.38-0.55B aggregate FY2026 Entertainment revenue + selected various aggregate ~+5-15% aggregate growth + selected various aggregate Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium + Ole Red venues + WSM-AM radio + Block 21/ACL Live + Category 10 Nashville + selected various aggregate ~live entertainment + venue + restaurant + media demand + selected various aggregate ~Nashville tourism + country music tailwind + selected various aggregate Atairos/NBCUniversal minority partnership + selected various aggregate Opry Entertainment Group strategic value crystallization (potential separation/IPO/monetization optionality) + selected various aggregate ~22-32% aggregate Entertainment adj. EBITDA margin. Risks: Live Nation Entertainment (LYV, ~$25-35B Mcap; live entertainment — venues + concerts) + Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE, ~$1-3B; live entertainment venues) + Sphere Entertainment (SPHR, ~$1-3B; entertainment venues) + Vail Resorts (MTN, ~$6-9B; destination experiences) + Cedar Fair / Six Flags (FUN, ~$4-6B; experiences) + Marriott / Hilton branded entertainment-adjacent hotels + selected various aggregate live entertainment + venue + restaurant + media competitive considerations + Nashville tourism cycle considerations + country music popularity cycle considerations + live entertainment demand cycle considerations + Atairos / NBCUniversal partnership considerations + Opry Entertainment Group separation/IPO/monetization timing + valuation considerations + restaurant (Ole Red) economics considerations + Category 10 + Block 21 ramp execution + media (WSM-AM) considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend (~4-6% aggregate yield; selected primary REIT distribution requirement; quarterly; ~80-95% AFFO payout) + selected various aggregate ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~$3.0-3.8B + selected primary ~4.5-5.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA + BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade) + ~58-62M aggregate diluted shares/units + weighted average debt maturity ~4-6 years + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate liquidity (revolver + cash).

FY2026 catalyst: continued dividend (~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual; selected various aggregate ~mid-single-digit % aggregate dividend growth) + selected continued ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (opportunistic) + selected various aggregate ~4.0-5.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (selected primary deleveraging on group/convention demand recovery + EBITDA growth) + selected various aggregate Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego capex completion + selected various aggregate debt refinancing/maturity management + selected continued BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 credit profile. Selected dividend + selected deleveraging + selected ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate liquidity support continued Hospitality + Entertainment growth + Gaylord Pacific ramp + selective expansion + Opry Entertainment Group strategic optionality.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$2.4-2.7B (+5-12% YoY) vs $2.34B FY2024; adj. FFO/share ~$8.00-9.50
• 2 segments: Hospitality ~83-87% ($2.0-2.3B; Gaylord Hotels — Opryland Nashville + Palms Orlando + Texan Grapevine + National Harbor DC + Rockies Denver + JW Marriott San Antonio + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista pending; ~9,000-10,000+ rooms; Marriott-managed) + Entertainment ~13-17% ($0.35-0.50B; Opry Entertainment Group — Grand Ole Opry + Ryman Auditorium + Ole Red + WSM-AM + Block 21/ACL Live + Category 10; Atairos/NBCUniversal partnership)
• Group/convention revenue mix: ~70-75% group + ~25-30% transient/leisure aggregate Hospitality
• Hospitality adj. EBITDA margin: ~28-34% aggregate
• post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery (post-2020-2022 pandemic disruption + post-2023-2025 group booking pace recovery + forward group revenue on the books)
• Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista San Diego: ~1,600 rooms; ~2025 opening
• Aggregate adj. EBITDAre: ~$0.7-0.9B FY2025
• Aggregate net debt: ~$3.0-3.8B; ~4.5-5.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA
• BB-/Ba3 to BB/Ba2 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade)
• ~58-62M aggregate diluted shares/units; ~$0.25-0.30B total dividends FY2025
• Dividend: ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual (~4-6% aggregate yield; quarterly; ~80-95% AFFO payout)
• Opportunistic buybacks (~$0+ aggregate FY2025)
• ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate liquidity (revolver + cash)
• ~700-1,000 corporate employees (hotel staff Marriott-managed)
• Colin Reed Chairman + CEO since ~2001 (~24+ year tenure) → Mark Fioravanti President + CEO designate
• HQ Nashville Tennessee; REIT conversion 2012 (from Gaylord Entertainment heritage)

Market Evaluation

RHP FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$90-130 share price + ~58-62M aggregate diluted shares/units = ~$5-8B equity market cap; ~$8-11B aggregate enterprise value (incl. ~$3.0-3.8B net debt); ~$4.00-4.80 aggregate annual dividend (~4-6% aggregate yield). Selected primary RHP peers: Host Hotels & Resorts (HST, ~$10-14B Mcap; lodging REIT — group/convention exposure) + Park Hotels & Resorts (PK, ~$2-4B; lodging REIT) + Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO, ~$2-3B; lodging REIT) + Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT — group/convention) + DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ, ~$1-2B; lodging REIT) + Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE, ~$3-4B; select-service lodging REIT) + Live Nation Entertainment (LYV, ~$25-35B; live entertainment — for Opry Entertainment Group comp) + Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE, ~$1-3B; live entertainment venues) + selected various aggregate lodging REIT + live entertainment companies. Selected RHP ~9-13x P/AFFO (group/convention destination resort REIT with Gaylord Hotels portfolio + ~70-75% group mix + post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista ramp + Opry Entertainment Group entertainment optionality + Marriott-managed) + selected ~10-14x EV/EBITDA + ~4-6% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$8.50-10.50 aggregate FY2026 adj. FFO/share + selected aggregate ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate Hospitality + Entertainment pipeline + sum-of-the-parts (Gaylord Hotels REIT + Opry Entertainment Group). FY2026 base case: ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate revenue + ~$8.50-10.50 adj. FFO/share + ~$0.7-0.9B adj. EBITDAre + ~4.0-5.5x net debt/EBITDA. Bull case: Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline acceleration (post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery continuation + strong forward group revenue on the books + banquet/catering + ancillary spend + RevPAR/Total RevPAR growth + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista full ramp + ~28-36% Hospitality adj. EBITDA margin) + Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline acceleration (Grand Ole Opry + Ryman + Ole Red + Block 21/ACL Live + Category 10 + Nashville tourism tailwind + Atairos partnership + monetization/separation crystallization) + deleveraging drives ~$2.8-3.3B aggregate revenue + ~$10.00-12.00 adj. FFO/share + sum-of-the-parts re-rating. Bear case: Host + Park + Pebblebrook + Sunstone + Xenia competitive intensification + group/convention demand cycle weakness (corporate meetings + association events + trade shows budget cuts) + leisure/transient demand cycle weakness + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista ramp execution + labor cost pressure + new supply + interest rate / debt refinancing pressure + Nashville tourism cycle considerations + Opry Entertainment Group separation/IPO timing + valuation considerations + Atairos partnership considerations + Colin Reed → Mark Fioravanti CEO transition considerations + REIT distribution requirement considerations drives ~$2.3-2.6B revenue + ~$7.50-8.80 adj. FFO/share + ~5.0-5.8x net debt/EBITDA. The thesis depends on the Hospitality / Gaylord Hotels Group Convention Resort pipeline + Entertainment / Opry Entertainment Group pipeline + ~70-75% group mix + post-2024-2025 group/convention demand recovery + Gaylord Pacific Chula Vista ramp + ~$4.00-4.80 dividend + deleveraging + Colin Reed → Mark Fioravanti transition + group/convention demand recovery execution + Opry Entertainment Group crystallization optionality.