Research · Sep 3, 2026
[QSR] Restaurant Brands Thesis 2026: Tim Hortons Plus Burger King Drive Franchise Royalty Cycle
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) FY2025 revenue ~$8.5-9.0B (+10-15%) with adj. EPS ~$3.55-3.95 reflecting continued post-2024 system-wide sales ~$45-48B (~30,000+ aggregate restaurants) plus selected post-2024 Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales recovery + Burger King US same-store sales recovery + Popeyes + Firehouse Subs growth + selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group ~$1.0B aggregate acquisition completion (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants) under continued President + CEO Patrick Doyle (~3-year tenure since November 2022). One of world's largest quick service restaurant (QSR) holding companies with operations across Canada + US + Latin America + EMEA + Asia Pacific. Founded December 2014 via ~$11B aggregate Tim Hortons Inc. + Burger King Worldwide merger; selected post-2014 NYSE + Toronto Stock Exchange dual listing; selected post-March 2017 ~$1.8B Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen acquisition; selected post-November 2021 ~$1.0B Firehouse Subs acquisition; selected post-November 2022 Patrick Doyle CEO appointment; selected post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition completion. Headquartered in Toronto Canada; ~5,500+ employees globally with ~$8.5-9.0B revenue. Four primary brand segments: Tim Hortons (~50% revenue ~$4.3-4.5B; ~5,700+ restaurants), Burger King (~30% ~$2.6-2.8B; ~19,000+ restaurants), Popeyes (~10% ~$0.85-0.90B; ~3,800+ restaurants), Firehouse Subs (~5% ~$0.45-0.50B; ~1,300+ restaurants). Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition: post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants from selected largest US Burger King franchisee); selected post-2024 selected various Burger King US restaurant remodeling + selected sale-leaseback. Burger King US Reclaim the Flame (post-2022 ~$400M aggregate turnaround program): selected post-2022 advertising + remodeling + technology investments. Tim Hortons Canadian QSR leadership: ~5,700+ restaurants primarily Canada (~70%+ Canadian); ~35-40% Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast market share leadership; selected continued post-2024 Canadian same-store sales recovery. President + CEO Patrick Doyle since November 2022 (~3-year tenure); CFO Sami Siddiqui. Capital return: ~$2.40-2.60 annual dividend FY2025 (~+5-8% growth; ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2014); modest buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$1.0-1.2B; net leverage ratio ~4.5-5.0x (selected reflecting 3G Capital leveraged structure preference); investment-grade Ba2/BB+ credit rating; ~30%+ 3G Capital aggregate ownership influence. FY2026 thesis: 4-brand franchise portfolio + Carrols Restaurant Group integration + Burger King Reclaim the Flame turnaround + ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate capital return + selected continued post-2024 net leverage normalization. Risks: macro consumer spending + QSR cyclical, Burger King US turnaround execution, ~30%+ 3G Capital ownership influence, McDonald's + Wendy's + Chick-fil-A + Domino's competitive intensity, USD/CAD currency volatility.