[QSR] Restaurant Brands Thesis 2026: Tim Hortons Plus Burger King Drive Franchise Royalty Cycle
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) FY2025 revenue ~$8.5-9.0B (+10-15%) with adj. EPS ~$3.55-3.95 reflecting continued post-2024 system-wide sales ~$45-48B (~30,000+ aggregate restaurants) plus selected post-2024 Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales recovery + Burger King US same-store sales recovery + Popeyes + Firehouse Subs growth + selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group ~$1.0B aggregate acquisition completion (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants) under continued President + CEO Patrick Doyle (~3-year tenure since November 2022). One of world's largest quick service restaurant (QSR) holding companies with operations across Canada + US + Latin America + EMEA + Asia Pacific. Founded December 2014 via ~$11B aggregate Tim Hortons Inc. + Burger King Worldwide merger; selected post-2014 NYSE + Toronto Stock Exchange dual listing; selected post-March 2017 ~$1.8B Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen acquisition; selected post-November 2021 ~$1.0B Firehouse Subs acquisition; selected post-November 2022 Patrick Doyle CEO appointment; selected post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition completion. Headquartered in Toronto Canada; ~5,500+ employees globally with ~$8.5-9.0B revenue. Four primary brand segments: Tim Hortons (~50% revenue ~$4.3-4.5B; ~5,700+ restaurants), Burger King (~30% ~$2.6-2.8B; ~19,000+ restaurants), Popeyes (~10% ~$0.85-0.90B; ~3,800+ restaurants), Firehouse Subs (~5% ~$0.45-0.50B; ~1,300+ restaurants). Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition: post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants from selected largest US Burger King franchisee); selected post-2024 selected various Burger King US restaurant remodeling + selected sale-leaseback. Burger King US Reclaim the Flame (post-2022 ~$400M aggregate turnaround program): selected post-2022 advertising + remodeling + technology investments. Tim Hortons Canadian QSR leadership: ~5,700+ restaurants primarily Canada (~70%+ Canadian); ~35-40% Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast market share leadership; selected continued post-2024 Canadian same-store sales recovery. President + CEO Patrick Doyle since November 2022 (~3-year tenure); CFO Sami Siddiqui. Capital return: ~$2.40-2.60 annual dividend FY2025 (~+5-8% growth; ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2014); modest buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$1.0-1.2B; net leverage ratio ~4.5-5.0x (selected reflecting 3G Capital leveraged structure preference); investment-grade Ba2/BB+ credit rating; ~30%+ 3G Capital aggregate ownership influence. FY2026 thesis: 4-brand franchise portfolio + Carrols Restaurant Group integration + Burger King Reclaim the Flame turnaround + ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate capital return + selected continued post-2024 net leverage normalization. Risks: macro consumer spending + QSR cyclical, Burger King US turnaround execution, ~30%+ 3G Capital ownership influence, McDonald's + Wendy's + Chick-fil-A + Domino's competitive intensity, USD/CAD currency volatility.
[QSR] Restaurant Brands Thesis 2026: Tim Hortons Plus Burger King Drive Franchise Royalty Cycle
Key Takeaways
- Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) FY2025 revenue ~$8.5-9.0B (+10-15% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$3.55-3.95 reflecting continued post-2024 system-wide sales ~$45-48B (~30,000+ aggregate restaurants) plus selected post-2024 Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales recovery + Burger King US same-store sales recovery + Popeyes + Firehouse Subs growth + selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group ~$1.0B aggregate acquisition completion (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants) under continued President + CEO Patrick Doyle (~3-year tenure since November 2022; ex-Domino's Pizza CEO 2010-2018 retired + selected post-2018 various advisory roles + ~25-year industry career; selected continued 3G Capital ~30%+ aggregate ownership influence).
- 4-brand franchise portfolio: Tim Hortons (~50% revenue ~$4.3-4.5B — selected major Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast; ~5,700+ restaurants) + Burger King (~30% revenue ~$2.6-2.8B — selected major global QSR burger; ~19,000+ restaurants) + Popeyes (~10% revenue ~$0.85-0.90B — selected major US QSR chicken; ~3,800+ restaurants) + Firehouse Subs (~5% revenue ~$0.45-0.50B — selected US QSR sub sandwich; ~1,300+ restaurants); ~30,000+ aggregate restaurants; ~$45-48B aggregate system-wide sales.
- Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition: post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition completion (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants from selected largest US Burger King franchisee) supporting selected post-2024 selected various Burger King US restaurant remodeling + post-2024 sale-leaseback to selected new franchisees; selected continued post-2024 Burger King US ~$400M aggregate "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround program execution.
- Capital return:
$2.40-2.60 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.60-0.65/quarter; selected post-2024 ~5-8% increase; ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2014 dividend initiation following Tim Hortons + Burger King merger formation); selected modest opportunistic buybacks; ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-2024 net leverage ratio ~4.5-5.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target (selected reflecting 3G Capital leveraged structure preference); investment-grade Ba2/BB+ credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital deployment.
Company Background
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) is one of world's largest quick service restaurant (QSR) holding companies with FY2025 revenue ~$8.5-9.0B (+10-15% YoY) and adj. EPS ~$3.55-3.95 reflecting continued post-2024 system-wide sales ~$45-48B (~30,000+ aggregate restaurants) and selected continued 4-brand franchise portfolio expansion. The company employs ~5,500+ globally with operations across Canada + US + Latin America + EMEA + Asia Pacific + selected various.
Founded December 2014 via ~$11B aggregate Tim Hortons Inc. + Burger King Worldwide merger creating selected combined Restaurant Brands International (selected post-merger 3G Capital + Berkshire Hathaway co-control structure); selected post-2014 NYSE + Toronto Stock Exchange dual listing; selected post-March 2017 ~$1.8B Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen acquisition; selected post-November 2021 ~$1.0B Firehouse Subs acquisition; selected post-November 2022 Patrick Doyle CEO appointment + selected post-2022 selected various Burger King US "Reclaim the Flame" ~$400M aggregate turnaround program; selected post-November 2024 ~$1.0B aggregate Carrols Restaurant Group acquisition completion.
Headquartered in Toronto Canada (selected post-2014 Tim Hortons Canadian HQ inheritance); ~5,500+ employees globally with ~$8.5-9.0B revenue. Four primary brand segments: Tim Hortons (~50% revenue ~$4.3-4.5B — selected major Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast; ~5,700+ restaurants primarily Canada + selected various international expansion), Burger King (~30% revenue ~$2.6-2.8B — selected major global QSR burger; ~19,000+ restaurants worldwide; selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group integration), Popeyes (~10% revenue ~$0.85-0.90B — selected major US QSR chicken; ~3,800+ restaurants), Firehouse Subs (~5% revenue ~$0.45-0.50B — selected US QSR sub sandwich; ~1,300+ restaurants).
President + CEO Patrick Doyle since November 2022 (~3-year tenure); succeeded José Cil (CEO 2019-November 2022 retired); Doyle ex-Domino's Pizza CEO 2010-2018 retired + selected post-2018 various advisory + Board roles + ~25-year industry career; selected continued 3G Capital ~30%+ aggregate ownership influence + Berkshire Hathaway selected reduced post-2014 ~30% ownership stake. CFO Sami Siddiqui (since 2023; ex-Restaurant Brands SVP Finance + selected various roles + ~15-year company career).
4-Brand Franchise Portfolio
Restaurant Brands 4-brand franchise portfolio:
- Tim Hortons (~50% revenue ~$4.3-4.5B): selected major Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast; ~5,700+ restaurants primarily Canada (~70%+ Canadian restaurants); selected continued post-2024 Canadian same-store sales recovery
- Burger King (~30% revenue ~$2.6-2.8B): selected major global QSR burger; ~19,000+ restaurants worldwide; selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group integration (~1,025 Burger King US restaurants); selected post-2022 "Reclaim the Flame" ~$400M aggregate turnaround program execution
- Popeyes (~10% revenue ~$0.85-0.90B): selected major US QSR chicken; ~3,800+ restaurants; selected continued post-2024 US + international chicken QSR growth
- Firehouse Subs (~5% revenue ~$0.45-0.50B): selected US QSR sub sandwich; ~1,300+ restaurants; selected post-2021 acquisition integration
FY2026 catalyst: continued 4-brand portfolio + ~$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Carrols Restaurant Group Acquisition + Burger King Reclaim the Flame
Post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group ~$1.0B aggregate acquisition + Burger King "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround:
- Carrols Restaurant Group: ~$1.0B aggregate acquisition (~1,025 Burger King + ~60 Popeyes US restaurants from selected largest US Burger King franchisee)
- Selected post-acquisition: continued post-2024 Burger King US restaurant remodeling + selected sale-leaseback to selected new franchisees
- Burger King Reclaim the Flame (post-2022 ~$400M aggregate turnaround program): selected post-2022 advertising + remodeling + technology investments + selected various
- Selected post-2024 Burger King US same-store sales recovery: continued post-2024 turnaround execution
FY2026 catalyst: continued Carrols integration + Burger King turnaround + ~$0.10-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Capital Return Framework
Restaurant Brands capital return policy targets selected ~5-8% annual dividend growth:
- Ordinary dividend:
$2.40-2.60 annual FY2025 ($0.60-0.65/quarter; selected post-2024 ~5-8% increase; ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2014 initiation) - Buybacks: selected modest opportunistic buybacks
- Aggregate capital return: ~$1.0-1.2B FY2025
- Net leverage ratio: ~4.5-5.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target (selected reflecting 3G Capital leveraged structure preference)
FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + dividend growth.
Risks
- Macro consumer: continued macro consumer spending + selected various QSR cyclical
- Burger King US turnaround: continued Burger King US "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround execution
- 3G Capital ownership: ~30%+ 3G Capital aggregate ownership influence on capital allocation
- Selected various competitive intensity: McDonald's + Wendy's + Chick-fil-A + Domino's + Yum! Brands + selected various
- Currency: USD/CAD + selected various international currency volatility
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.5-9.0B | $8.4B | $7.0B | $6.5B | $9.0-9.6B |
| System-wide sales | $45-48B | $43B | $40B | $36B | $48-52B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $2.7-2.9B | $2.55B | $2.40B | $2.32B | $2.9-3.2B |
| Adj. EPS | $3.55-3.95 | $3.32 | $3.20 | $3.14 | $3.85-4.30 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 31-32% | 30.4% | 34.3% | 35.6% | 32-33% |
| Capital return | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | $2.40-2.60 | $2.30 | $2.55-2.80 |
| Buybacks | modest | modest | modest |
| Total return | $1.0-1.2B | $1.0B | $1.1-1.3B |
| Net leverage | 4.5-5.0x | 4.7x | 4.3-4.8x |
Market Evaluation
Restaurant Brands trades at selected ~17-20x FY2026 P/E discount vs McDonald's (~22-25x) + Yum! Brands (~22-25x) + Domino's Pizza (~22-26x) + selected various US QSR peers reflecting selected ~30%+ 3G Capital aggregate ownership concentration + selected continued post-2024 Burger King US "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround overhang + selected post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group integration + selected ~10-year dividend track. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Tim Hortons + Burger King + Popeyes + Firehouse Subs same-store sales growth; (2) post-November 2024 Carrols Restaurant Group integration + selected sale-leaseback execution; (3) Burger King US "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround execution; (4) ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual capital return + ~5-8% dividend growth; (5) selected post-2024 net leverage ratio normalization.
Tim Hortons Canadian QSR Leadership Deep Dive
Restaurant Brands Tim Hortons franchise represents selected primary geographic differentiation thesis vs other QSR operators (McDonald's + Yum! Brands + Domino's Pizza + Chick-fil-A + selected various). Selected ~5,700+ Tim Hortons restaurants primarily Canada (~70%+ Canadian restaurants concentration; selected ~35-40% Canadian QSR coffee + breakfast market share leadership) creates selected unique Canadian QSR franchise concentration with selected limited US QSR competitive pressure. Selected continued post-2024 Canadian same-store sales recovery from selected post-COVID + selected post-2022 Canadian inflation cycle reflects (a) continued Canadian consumer foot traffic recovery; (b) selected post-2024 Tim Hortons advertising + selected various menu expansion + selected various technology investments; (c) selected continued Canadian breakfast + coffee QSR cyclical recovery. Selected ~$4.3-4.5B FY2025 Tim Hortons revenue (~50% Restaurant Brands consolidated revenue) supports selected continued ~$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution. FY2026 catalyst: continued Tim Hortons Canadian QSR leadership + selected continued post-2024 same-store sales recovery + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution.
FY2026 thesis: 4-brand franchise portfolio + Carrols Restaurant Group integration + Burger King Reclaim the Flame turnaround + ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate capital return + selected continued post-2024 net leverage normalization.
