Research · Sep 3, 2026
[PKX] POSCO Thesis 2026: Lithium Battery Materials Diversification Tests Steel Cycle Recovery
POSCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PKX) FY2025 revenue ~₩78-83T (~$56-60B; -3 to +3%) with diluted EPS ~₩28,500-32,500 reflecting continued post-2024 steel pricing cycle recovery (HRC ~$700-750/t FY2025 vs ~$650-700/t FY2024 trough) plus selected post-2024 POSCO Future M (lithium battery cathode + anode materials) ~₩4-5T revenue + selected post-2024 POSCO Lithium Solution ~50K tonnes lithium hydroxide aggregate capacity ramp + selected post-2024 ~$10B+ aggregate FY2024-2027 capex investment plan under continued Chairman + CEO Sung-Wook Chang since March 2024 (~1-year tenure). South Korea's largest steel producer + selected major global lithium battery materials + selected various diversified company. Founded April 1968 as Pohang Iron and Steel Company (POSCO) in Pohang South Korea (~57-year heritage); selected post-1988 Korea Stock Exchange listing partial privatization; selected post-1994 NYSE ADR listing; selected post-2002 POSCO rebrand; selected post-2018 Jeong-Woo Choi CEO appointment + post-2018 strategic refocus on lithium battery materials diversification; selected post-March 2022 POSCO Holdings holding company restructuring; selected post-March 2024 Sung-Wook Chang Chairman + CEO appointment. Headquartered in Seoul South Korea; ~37,000+ employees globally with ~₩78-83T revenue. Three primary business segments: Steel (~70% revenue ~₩55-58T), Battery Materials + Energy (~15% ~₩12-13T), Trading + Construction + Logistics + Other (~15% ~₩12-13T). Lithium battery materials diversification: POSCO Future M (formerly POSCO Chemical) ~₩4-5T aggregate FY2025 revenue (lithium battery cathode NCM + NCMA + anode); POSCO Lithium Solution ~50K tonnes lithium hydroxide aggregate capacity FY2025 (ramping toward 100K+ tonnes FY2027); ~$10B+ aggregate FY2024-2027 capex investment plan; customers LG Energy Solution + Samsung SDI + Tesla + Hyundai-Kia + selected various; Argentina (Sal de Oro) + Australia (Pilgangoora) lithium projects. Steel cycle recovery: HRC pricing ~$700-750/t FY2025 (vs ~$650-700/t FY2024 trough vs ~$1,000+/t FY2022 peak); ~35-37M tonnes aggregate crude steel production (~27-29M Korean + ~7-9M Indonesia); selected post-2024 carbon-neutral steelmaking R&D. Capital return + holding company structure: ~₩10,000-12,000 annual dividend FY2025 (~+0-10% growth); modest buybacks; selected post-2022 POSCO Holdings restructuring; aggregate capital return ~₩4-5T; net leverage 1.5-2.0x; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating. Chairman + CEO Sung-Wook Chang since March 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Yong-Min Lee. FY2026 thesis: lithium battery materials diversification + steel cycle recovery + ~$10B+ aggregate capex + ~25-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2022 holding company restructuring optimization. Risks: steel cycle adjustment, Chinese steel exports pressure, lithium pricing volatility, Korean macro, KRW/USD currency volatility.