Research · Sep 3, 2026
[NOK] Nokia Thesis 2026: Network Infrastructure Recovery Tests Mobile Networks Margin
Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) FY2025 revenue ~€20-22B (-3 to +5%) with adj. EPS ~€0.35-0.45 reflecting continued post-2024 Network Infrastructure (~€8-9B; +5-8%) + Cloud and Network Services (~€3-4B; +0-3%) recovery from FY2023-2024 mobile capex downturn plus continued post-October 2024 ~$2.3B Infinera acquisition closing (optical networking) plus selected post-2024 cost reduction program completion under continued CEO Pekka Lundmark (~5-year tenure since August 2020). Global telecommunications network equipment + services provider with operations across telecommunications network equipment + selected enterprise + technology licensing in 130+ countries. Founded May 1865 as Nokia Ab originally pulp mill in Tampere Finland (~160-year heritage; selected one of Finland's oldest continuing companies); selected post-1967 Nokia Corporation merger of Finnish Cable Works + Finnish Rubber Works + Nokia Ab into single conglomerate; selected post-1980s strategic shift toward telecommunications + electronics; selected post-2007 strategic NSN (Nokia Siemens Networks) joint venture; selected post-September 2013 ~$7.2B Microsoft Devices and Services divestiture; selected post-April 2016 ~$16.6B Alcatel-Lucent acquisition; selected post-October 2024 ~$2.3B Infinera acquisition closing. Headquartered in Espoo Finland; ~80,000+ employees globally with ~€20-22B revenue. Four primary business segments: Network Infrastructure ~40-45% revenue (~€8-9B — fiber + IP routing + optical post-October 2024 Infinera closing + fixed networks + submarine cable), Mobile Networks ~40-45% (~€8-9B — RAN equipment + 5G + selected various mobile network equipment for major operators globally), Cloud and Network Services ~15-18% (~€3-4B — cloud-native software + 5G core + service provider software + selected enterprise), Nokia Technologies ~5-6% (~€1.0-1.2B — patent licensing + selected various technology licensing). Network Infrastructure recovery: ~€8-9B FY2025 revenue (+5-8% YoY post-FY2023-2024 mobile capex downturn); fiber + Fixed Networks ~€2.5-3B + IP Routing ~€2-2.5B + Optical Networks ~€2.5-3B post-October 2024 Infinera $2.3B closing; FY2026 catalyst: continued AI data center optical networking demand. Mobile Networks margin: ~€8-9B FY2025 revenue (-3 to 0% YoY); selected mobile capex downturn FY2023-2024 stabilization; major US T-Mobile + AT&T + Verizon + Indian (Reliance Jio + Bharti Airtel + Vodafone Idea) + Asian + European RAN customers; ~5-7% adj. operating margin FY2025 (vs ~3-5% FY2023-2024 trough); FY2026 catalyst: ~7-10% adj. operating margin recovery. Cloud and Network Services + Nokia Technologies: cloud-native 5G core + service provider software ~€3-4B; Nokia Technologies ~€1.0-1.2B annual licensing revenue (~80%+ adj. operating margin) + selected post-2024 Apple multi-year licensing renewal. CEO Pekka Lundmark since August 2020 (succeeded Rajeev Suri CEO 2014-August 2020 retired; Lundmark ex-Fortum CEO 2015-2020 + ~30+-year industry career; selected post-2020 Nokia turnaround focus + post-2023 ~€500-800M aggregate cost reduction). Capital return: ~€0.14-0.16 annual dividend FY2025 (~+0-7% growth); ~€600M aggregate FY2024-2026 buyback program; ~€1.5-1.8B aggregate FY2025 capital return; investment-grade Ba1/BB+ credit rating; selected post-2024 net cash position ~€2-3B. FY2026 thesis: Network Infrastructure recovery + Mobile Networks margin recovery + Infinera integration + IPR licensing stability + ~€1.5-1.8B capital return. Risks: mobile capex cycle, AI data center hyperscaler optical demand sustainability, ~30%+ China + emerging market exposure, Infinera integration execution, EUR/USD currency.