Research · Mar 12, 2026
QatarEnergy's gas supply disruption has forced the Qatalum smelter to operate at ~60% capacity, removing approximately 235,000 metric tons of annualized aluminum production from global supply. Alcoa (AA) is best positioned as a vertically integrated beneficiary on both alumina pricing and aluminum supply tightness, while Century Aluminum (CENX) offers higher-beta upside but trades at stretched valuations with thin margins vulnerable to input cost spikes.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Alcoa enters Q1 2026 positioned to capture significant alumina price uplift from Qatar supply disruptions, with its vertically integrated refinery network of 9.7–9.9 million tons of annual production providing direct exposure. The Q1 2025 template — when elevated alumina prices drove EBITDA to $869M and EPS to $2.07 — demonstrates how each $50/ton alumina price move translates to roughly $500M in annualized EBITDA, creating an asymmetric setup against consensus expectations of $1.18 EPS.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Century Aluminum's Grundartangi smelter restoration by end of July 2026 adds an estimated 130,000–155,000 annualized tonnes back to global aluminum supply — roughly 0.2% of world output. While small in percentage terms, the incremental volume is meaningful in a structurally tight Western aluminum market and positions CENX for a significant EBITDA step-up in FY2026, with Q1 guided at $215–$235 million.
