Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MUSA] Murphy USA Thesis 2026: Walmart-Adjacent Fuel Cycle Drives Convenience Store Capital Return
Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) FY2025 revenue ~$20.5-21.5B (+0-5%) with adj. EPS ~$24.50-26.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$15.5-16.3B aggregate Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + selected various QuickChek fuel) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.95-4.20B aggregate Merchandise revenue (~19% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.05-1.15B aggregate Other (~5% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary lottery + ATM + selected various) under continued President + CEO Andrew Clyde since 2013 (~12-year tenure as Murphy USA CEO; selected post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff). One of the largest US Walmart-adjacent fuel + convenience store chains. Founded September 2013 as Murphy USA spinoff from Murphy Oil Corporation in El Dorado Arkansas (~12-year heritage post-spinoff); selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing; selected post-January 2021 ~$645M+ QuickChek acquisition; selected post-2013 Andrew Clyde CEO appointment. Headquartered in El Dorado Arkansas; ~10,500+ employees globally with ~$20.5-21.5B revenue. Three primary business segments: Petroleum Product Fuel (~76% ~$15.5-16.3B), Merchandise (~19% ~$3.95-4.20B), Other (~5% ~$1.05-1.15B). Geographic mix: US ~100%; selected primary South + Southeast + Mid-Atlantic + Northeast + Midwest. Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle: ~$15.5-16.3B Petroleum Product revenue; ~1,720+ aggregate total stores (~1,170+ Murphy USA + ~300+ Murphy Express + ~250+ QuickChek); ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold; ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin. Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco): ~$3.95-4.20B Merchandise revenue; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise; ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin. President + CEO Andrew Clyde since 2013 (~12-year tenure); CFO Galagher Jeff. Capital return: ~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$240-340M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x; investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco) + ~$1.96 annual dividend + ~6-year continuous dividend track + ~$240-360M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-2021 QuickChek integration synergies + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops competition, EV adoption, tobacco regulation + consumption decline, fuel cycle, sustained ~2.0-2.5x net leverage.