Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) FY2025 revenue ~$20.5-21.5B (+0-5%) with adj. EPS ~$24.50-26.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$15.5-16.3B aggregate Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + selected various QuickChek fuel) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.95-4.20B aggregate Merchandise revenue (~19% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.05-1.15B aggregate Other (~5% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary lottery + ATM + selected various) under continued President + CEO Andrew Clyde since 2013 (~12-year tenure as Murphy USA CEO; selected post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff). One of the largest US Walmart-adjacent fuel + convenience store chains. Founded September 2013 as Murphy USA spinoff from Murphy Oil Corporation in El Dorado Arkansas (~12-year heritage post-spinoff); selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing; selected post-January 2021 ~$645M+ QuickChek acquisition; selected post-2013 Andrew Clyde CEO appointment. Headquartered in El Dorado Arkansas; ~10,500+ employees globally with ~$20.5-21.5B revenue. Three primary business segments: Petroleum Product Fuel (~76% ~$15.5-16.3B), Merchandise (~19% ~$3.95-4.20B), Other (~5% ~$1.05-1.15B). Geographic mix: US ~100%; selected primary South + Southeast + Mid-Atlantic + Northeast + Midwest. Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle: ~$15.5-16.3B Petroleum Product revenue; ~1,720+ aggregate total stores (~1,170+ Murphy USA + ~300+ Murphy Express + ~250+ QuickChek); ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold; ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin. Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco): ~$3.95-4.20B Merchandise revenue; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise; ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin. President + CEO Andrew Clyde since 2013 (~12-year tenure); CFO Galagher Jeff. Capital return: ~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$240-340M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x; investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco) + ~$1.96 annual dividend + ~6-year continuous dividend track + ~$240-360M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-2021 QuickChek integration synergies + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops competition, EV adoption, tobacco regulation + consumption decline, fuel cycle, sustained ~2.0-2.5x net leverage.

[MUSA] Murphy USA Thesis 2026: Walmart-Adjacent Fuel Cycle Drives Convenience Store Capital Return

Key Takeaways

MUSA FY2025 revenue ~$20.5-21.5B (+0-5% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$24.50-26.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$15.5-16.3B aggregate Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + selected various QuickChek fuel) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.95-4.20B aggregate Merchandise revenue (~19% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.05-1.15B aggregate Other (~5% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary lottery + ATM + selected various) under continued President + CEO Andrew Clyde since 2013 (~12-year tenure as Murphy USA CEO; selected post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff).
Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle: ~$15.5-16.3B Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% revenue mix); selected primary US Walmart-adjacent ~1,170+ aggregate Murphy USA + ~250+ aggregate QuickChek + ~300+ aggregate Murphy Express stores; selected ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold + selected various ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin; selected various aggregate ~+0-2% aggregate gallons growth.
Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco): ~$3.95-4.20B Merchandise revenue (~19% revenue mix); selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise; selected various aggregate ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin + selected ~$2.95-3.20B aggregate Merchandise gross profit; selected various aggregate ~+1-3% aggregate Merchandise revenue growth.
Capital return + balance sheet: ~~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.49/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation); ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$240-340M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA; investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating (selected non-investment grade post-spinoff legacy).
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco) + ~$1.96 annual dividend + ~6-year continuous dividend track + ~$240-340M aggregate annual capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected continued post-2021 QuickChek integration synergies.

Company Background

Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) is one of the largest US Walmart-adjacent fuel + convenience store chains, founded September 2013 as Murphy USA spinoff from Murphy Oil Corporation in El Dorado Arkansas (~12-year heritage post-spinoff; selected ~1996 underlying Murphy Oil + Walmart partnership origin). Selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing transition (selected post-September 2013 Murphy USA spinoff from Murphy Oil); selected post-2013-2024 selected various ~$2B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-January 2021 ~$645M+ QuickChek acquisition + selected various organic ~150+ Murphy Express new builds); selected post-2013 Andrew Clyde CEO appointment (selected continued post-September 2013 Murphy USA spinoff CEO); HQ El Dorado Arkansas; ~10,500+ employees globally.

MUSA operates 3 primary business segments: Petroleum Product (Fuel) ~~76% revenue (~~$15.5-16.3B — selected primary US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek fuel) + Merchandise ~~19% revenue (~~$3.95-4.20B — selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise) + Other ~~5% revenue (~~$1.05-1.15B — selected primary lottery + ATM + selected various). Geographic mix: US ~~100% revenue (~~$20.5-21.5B); selected primary South + Southeast + selected various Mid-Atlantic + selected various Northeast + selected various Midwest US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek footprint. Selected ~1,170+ aggregate Murphy USA stores + ~300+ aggregate Murphy Express + ~250+ aggregate QuickChek (~1,720+ aggregate total stores).

Capital return: ~~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.49/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation); ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$240-340M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA; investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating.

Walmart-Adjacent Fuel Cycle

The Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle is MUSA's foundation thesis: ~$15.5-16.3B Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% revenue mix) + selected primary US Walmart-adjacent ~1,170+ aggregate Murphy USA + ~250+ aggregate QuickChek + ~300+ aggregate Murphy Express stores + selected ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold + selected various ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin + selected various aggregate ~+0-2% aggregate gallons growth. Selected primary MUSA platform: Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek + selected various aggregate scale + selected various aggregate fuel margin + selected various aggregate everyday low price (EDLP) positioning.

FY2025 fuel dynamics ($15.5-16.3B aggregate Petroleum Product revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold + ~25-30 aggregate CPG aggregate fuel margin + selected various aggregate ~+0-2% aggregate gallons growth + selected various aggregate Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek footprint scale. Selected post-2024 ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution as Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + selected various aggregate fuel margin + selected various aggregate scale drives incremental margin + Petroleum Product revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued President + CEO Andrew Clyde leadership (~12-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~5.1-5.3B aggregate annual gallons sold + selected various ~25-32 aggregate CPG aggregate fuel margin + selected various aggregate ~+1-3% aggregate gallons growth + selected various aggregate Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek footprint scale. Risks: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops + selected various aggregate US convenience store + selected various aggregate fuel competitive displacement + selected various aggregate EV adoption + selected various aggregate fuel cycle.

Convenience Store Cycle (Merchandise + Foodservice + Tobacco)

The convenience store cycle is MUSA's primary growth thesis: ~$3.95-4.20B Merchandise revenue (~19% revenue mix) + selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise + selected various aggregate ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin + selected ~$2.95-3.20B aggregate Merchandise gross profit + selected various aggregate ~+1-3% aggregate Merchandise revenue growth.

FY2025 Merchandise dynamics: ~$3.95-4.20B aggregate Merchandise revenue + selected various aggregate ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin + selected ~$2.95-3.20B aggregate Merchandise gross profit + selected various aggregate ~+1-3% aggregate Merchandise revenue growth + selected various aggregate tobacco + beverage + foodservice + general merchandise mix. Selected post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution as Convenience store cycle + Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco drives incremental margin + Merchandise revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued convenience store cycle + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$4.05-4.30B aggregate Merchandise revenue + selected various ~+1-3% aggregate Merchandise revenue growth + selected ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin + selected various aggregate tobacco + beverage + foodservice + general merchandise mix + selected continued post-2021 QuickChek integration synergies. Risks: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops + selected various aggregate US convenience store + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate tobacco regulation + selected various aggregate tobacco consumption decline + foodservice competition.

Capital Return + Dividend Track

Capital return + dividend track: ~~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.49/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation) + ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025) + aggregate capital return ~$240-340M FY2025 + net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA + investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~~$1.96-2.20 aggregate dividend (~~+10-15% aggregate selected dividend acceleration) + selected continued ~$200-300M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued investment-grade balance sheet. Selected ~6-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected ~2.0-2.5x net leverage support continued capital return discipline + selected various aggregate ~$150-250M aggregate annual organic store CapEx (selected ~30-50 aggregate annual new Murphy Express + selected various tuck-in M&A capacity).

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$20.5-21.5B (+0-5% YoY) vs $20.0B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$24.50-26.50
3 segments: Petroleum Product (Fuel) ~76% ($15.5-16.3B), Merchandise ~19% ($3.95-4.20B), Other ~5% ($1.05-1.15B)
Geographic mix: US ~100%; selected primary South + Southeast + Mid-Atlantic + Northeast + Midwest
~1,720+ aggregate total stores (~1,170+ Murphy USA + ~300+ Murphy Express + ~250+ QuickChek)
Fuel: ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold; ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin
Merchandise: ~22-25% aggregate gross margin; ~$2.95-3.20B aggregate Merchandise gross profit
~19-21M diluted shares; ~$240-340M total capital return FY2025
~$1.96 annual dividend FY2025 (~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation)
~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025)
Net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA
Investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating
President + CEO Andrew Clyde (since 2013, ~12-year tenure); CFO Galagher Jeff
Selected post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff legacy

Market Evaluation

MUSA trades as a Walmart-adjacent fuel + convenience store chain levered to fuel cycle + Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco + selected continued post-2021 QuickChek integration synergies + selected ~6-year continuous dividend track. Bull case: ~$15.5-16.3B Petroleum Product + ~$3.95-4.20B Merchandise + ~$1.05-1.15B Other + ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons + ~25-30 CPG aggregate fuel margin + ~1,720+ stores + ~$1.96 dividend (~6-year track) drive ~$26.50-29.00 adj. EPS FY2026 (+8-10% YoY). Bear case: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops competitive displacement + selected various aggregate EV adoption + tobacco regulation + tobacco consumption decline + fuel cycle severe + foodservice competition + sustained ~2.0-2.5x net leverage trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + Convenience store cycle + ~6-year continuous dividend track + ~2.0-2.5x net leverage discipline support continued ~$26.50-29.00 adj. EPS + ~$240-360M aggregate capital return FY2026.

Walmart-Adjacent Fuel Cycle Drives Convenience Store Capital Return Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$15.5-16.3B aggregate Petroleum Product (Fuel) revenue (~76% revenue mix; selected primary US Walmart-adjacent + Murphy Express + QuickChek fuel) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.95-4.20B aggregate Merchandise revenue (~19% revenue mix; selected primary tobacco + selected various beverage + selected various foodservice + selected various general merchandise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.05-1.15B aggregate Other revenue + selected continued post-2024 ~5.0-5.2B aggregate annual gallons sold + selected continued post-2024 ~25-30 aggregate cents per gallon (CPG) aggregate fuel margin + selected continued post-2024 ~22-25% aggregate Merchandise gross margin + selected continued post-2024 ~1,720+ aggregate total stores (~1,170+ Murphy USA + ~300+ Murphy Express + ~250+ QuickChek) + selected continued post-January 2021 QuickChek acquisition integration synergies + selected ~~$1.96 annual dividend (~~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~6-year continuous dividend track post-2018 dividend initiation) + selected ~$200-300M aggregate annual buybacks + selected ~2.0-2.5x net leverage + investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating drive MUSA's primary FY2026 thesis. President + CEO Andrew Clyde (~12-year tenure) leadership continues post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff CEO appointment focus on Walmart-adjacent fuel cycle + Convenience store cycle (Merchandise + foodservice + tobacco) + capital return discipline + selected continued post-January 2021 QuickChek integration. Selected ~6-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected investment-grade Ba1/BB credit rating + selected aggregate ~$240-360M aggregate annual capital return support continued MUSA compounding profile. Risks: 7-Eleven + Casey's General Stores + Couche-Tard (Circle K) + Wawa + RaceTrac + Pilot Flying J + Love's Travel Stops + selected various aggregate US convenience store + selected various aggregate fuel + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate EV adoption (selected post-2030+ aggregate EV penetration) + selected various aggregate tobacco regulation + selected various aggregate tobacco consumption decline + foodservice competition + selected various aggregate fuel cycle + sustained ~2.0-2.5x net leverage + selected post-September 2013 Murphy Oil spinoff legacy considerations + selected post-January 2021 QuickChek integration considerations.