MUR
NYSE · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 4, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.27
- Revenue estimate
- $718.8M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 6, 2026
- EPS actual
- $1.55
- EPS estimate
- $1.57
- Revenue actual
- $928.3M
- Revenue estimate
- $888.5M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 9
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 3
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +106.1%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 8
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Hold
- Price target
- $38
- PT range
- $34 – $43
- Analysts
- 6
Q2 FY2026 · Aug 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
Portfolio Strategy and Capital Discipline
- The decision to accelerate activity in the Eagleford is part of the firm's multi-basin portfolio strategy, not a departure from capital discipline. Eagleford is a flexible, high-return onshore asset that will generate incremental near-term production and free cash flow to fund offshore growth opportunities, particularly in Southeast Asia and West Africa, and will become an increasingly important source of cash flow and financial flexibility for the full business.
- The company's core operating model is disciplined opportunity identification, technical testing, safe efficient development, and funding through resilient base cash flow, which creates sustainable long-term shareholder value.
Operational Progress
- Two major Gulf of America offshore projects remain on track for first production in Q4 202X: Chinook No. 8 has finished drilling to a total depth of 26,000 feet, and all major construction and installation milestones (pipeline, topsides, FSO) are complete for Lac du Vent.
- The HSV appraisal program in Vietnam is complete, with a confirmed 200-300 million barrel developable resource, and engineering studies are now underway ahead of a planned final investment decision.
- The Bubal West 1X appraisal well in Cote d'Ivoire spud in July 202X, targeting the Turonian reservoir interval to confirm resource extent and commerciality.
Guidance
- Full-year 202X is expected to generate positive free cash flow even after the revised higher capital program, at current commodity prices.
- Eagleford is expected to reach 40,000-45,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2027, with management leaning toward the higher end of this range.
- Lac du Vent in Vietnam is expected to reach net production of 5,000-9,000 bopd by the end of 2027, ramping to 10,000-15,000 bopd by the end of phase development drilling in 2029.
- The HSV project in Vietnam is targeting a final investment decision in Q4 2027, with 5,000-6,000 boepd expected to come online in 2030.
- 2027 capital expenditure is expected to be higher than recent years, with a base program (excluding Bubal appraisal spending) at or slightly above the prior guided range of $1.2-$1.3 billion. Bubal appraisal spending will be additive, with total 2027 CapEx largely dependent on drilling results from Bubal West 1X.
- The company maintains its longstanding commitment to its base dividend and balance sheet strength, with share buybacks possible when the share price is disconnected from intrinsic value.
Segment performance
This transcript does not break out financial performance by individual product or business segments. Aggregate company results for the quarter are: $110 million in generated free cash flow, $50 million returned to shareholders via dividend, leverage maintained below 1x, and ending liquidity of approximately $2.5 billion. Second quarter production averaged 169,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), which beat the midpoint of prior guidance, led by outperformance at Tupper Motney and continued strength in the Eagleford. No revenue contribution percentages for individual segments are provided in the transcript.
Risks & headwinds
- The size and commerciality of the Bubal discovery in Cote d'Ivoire remains uncertain pending completion of the appraisal program; resource volumes and project economics will not be fully confirmed until all planned appraisal wells are completed and results are analyzed.
- Exploration drilling inherently carries risk of dry holes or sub-commercial resource discoveries, as seen with the HSV-3 and HSV-4 appraisal wells in Vietnam that found smaller than expected reservoir volumes and poor reservoir quality.
- Near-term capital expenditure is dependent on commodity prices; if oil prices drop significantly, the company can pull back on exploration and development spending, but lower prices would also reduce free cash flow generation from the Eagleford and other producing assets.
- New exploration opportunities in North Africa (Morocco, Cameroon, Mauritania) are in early stages, and there is no guarantee that prospective resources will result in commercial discoveries.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What are the next steps for HSV development in Vietnam, and what is the timeline for a final investment decision (FID)? / A: After the HSV appraisal program, management has high confidence in a 200-300 million barrel developable resource with attractive shallow-water economics. Over the next 12 months, the team will evaluate two development concepts (an FPSO, or a processing platform with tied wellheads and an FSO similar to the Lac du Vent project), work with partners on regulatory approvals, and target an FID with the board in Q4 2027, which remains on schedule.
Q: Why is the company accelerating Eagleford activity, and how does this fit into capital allocation priorities? / A: The acceleration is not driven by current high oil prices. Eagleford has delivered increasingly strong well performance and generates reliable free cash flow even at moderate oil prices. Incremental investment in Eagleford will generate additional near-term cash flow to fund high-potential appraisal and development growth in Cote d'Ivoire and Vietnam, while keeping the company's base North American production stable, without deviating from capital discipline.
Q: What is the capital allocation framework for the period of higher planned spending, and will shareholder returns change? / A: The company's core capital allocation priorities have not changed: it will continue to prioritize value-creating growth investment, maintain the base dividend (which the company has paid continuously since 1961), protect a strong balance sheet, and conduct share buybacks when the share price is disconnected from intrinsic value. Management is willing to use existing balance sheet liquidity to support growth but will maintain strong credit metrics at all times.
Q: What are the objectives of the Bubal West 1X appraisal well, and what will it confirm for the Cote d'Ivoire project? / A: The discovery well at Bubal found oil in both the Turonian and Cenomanian intervals, but only one well penetration exists across the large prospective reservoir area. Bubal West 1X is drilled down-dip in the Turonian to test reservoir continuity, quality, thickness, and confirm a deeper oil column than proven by the first well. Success here will give management high confidence that the discovery is already commercial, allowing faster progression toward development planning, while the full resource size will still require additional appraisal.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 4, 2026