Research · Sep 3, 2026
Microsoft FY25 (Jun 30, 2025) at $281.7B (+15%). Intelligent Cloud $106B (37.7%) on Azure +mid/high-20s. P&BP $120.8B (43%). MPC $54.6B. OpMargin expanded 100bp to 45.6% despite capex step. Capex $64.6B (22.9% intensity, record). FCF $71.6B; capital return $42.5B (dividends $24.1B > buybacks $18.4B for first time). 19 analysts: 18 Buy / 1 Hold; April PTs trended down on FY26 capex guide (BNP -$103 largest cut).
Research · Jun 15, 2026
Trump freezes Anthropic from government AI. META Llama emerges as primary sovereign AI alternative. Potential $500M-$1.25B annual revenue.
Research · Jun 8, 2026
OpenAI plans the biggest ChatGPT overhaul since launch, recasting it as higher-margin products. What it means for Apple Intelligence and AAPL.
Research · Jun 6, 2026
Trump administration is discussing a government equity stake in OpenAI. What it would mean for Microsoft's 49% OpenAI ownership and the MSFT thesis.
Research · Jun 2, 2026
Amazon's Q1 2026 capex run-rate annualizes to $176B — putting it in the same tier as MSFT and GOOGL. The capital-allocation math reframes the AMZN equity.
Research · Jun 2, 2026
Alphabet's $80B secondary issuance signals AI capex has outgrown organic FCF. Goldman bookrunner. The capital-allocation pivot reprices the hyperscaler.
Research · Jun 2, 2026
Anthropic's expected IPO at $400-500B repositions hyperscaler AI equity stakes from off-balance-sheet to mark-to-market.
Research · Jun 1, 2026
NVDA AMD AI agent capex 2026 thesis: Semianalysis $10K AI-agent code review run + Anthropic Opus 4.8 5x cost cut unlocks a new $1B+ enterprise R&D inference demand pool on hyperscale GPUs.
Research · Jun 1, 2026
NVDA Arm-based PC superchip launches H2 2026 in Microsoft Surface, Dell XPS, and HP EliteBook — a TAM expansion past the $75B/quarter Data Center engine that posted +92% YoY in Q1 FY27.
Research · Apr 30, 2026
Microsoft's October 2025 partnership restructuring with OpenAI locked in a $250 billion Azure commitment but eliminated the company's right of first refusal on incremental compute capacity. Amazon's simultaneous OpenAI partnership expansion signals compute diversification away from MSFT exclusivity. Street models carry zero margin impact, but the loss of first-refusal rights could compress Azure margins by 50-100bp as OpenAI's growth spend flows to AWS and other providers.
Research · Apr 28, 2026
A London tribunal has allowed a £2.1 billion ($2.8 billion) class action lawsuit against Microsoft to proceed, alleging overcharging for Windows Server licenses on rival cloud platforms. This exposes a critical vulnerability in Microsoft's high-margin licensing revenue model and could trigger global precedent. The market currently prices no risk from this event.
Research · Apr 28, 2026
Investor pushback on OpenAI's $852B valuation amid a strategy pivot spotlights Microsoft's 27% stake, which drove $10B Q4 gains but volatile losses elsewhere. MSFT's core cloud business powers ahead at 26% growth, rendering the bet a high-upside sideshow. Bullish on MSFT long-term.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
Mega-cap tech stocks NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and META rallied into record Nasdaq highs on April 17, 2026, ahead of Q1 earnings. Latest quarters showed 16-73% revenue growth and EPS surges, driven by AI and services, with upbeat guidance signaling momentum. Investors eye beats amid high valuations.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
Clearway Energy's 2 GW hyperscaler power purchase agreements quantify what had been qualitative AI data center power demand, implying $50B annual investment through 2030 is credible. NextEra and Constellation trade at 19x and 12x forward P/E despite positioned for multi-decade contracted revenue streams, while hyperscalers demanding the power trade at 25-35x. Long NEE and CEG targets 15-25% upside over 12 months as Q2-Q4 earnings calls surface similar contract announcements.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Anchored in the WSJ's April 10 report on White House AI safeguards, this analyzes U.S. federal regulation's impact: compliant giants like ORCL and MSFT win, while NVDA faces curbs. Ranks six stocks by conviction amid rising compliance demands.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bureaucratic delays in Trump's AI chip export controls provide relief to U.S. AI infrastructure firms, enabling focus on domestic growth. NVDA, AMD, SMCI, ANET, and MSFT stand to benefit most, ranked by conviction with financials highlighting growth and valuations. Policy risks remain, but near-term tailwinds favor hardware leaders.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Anthropic's April 9 model launch triggered a software selloff, highlighting OpenAI's slipping frontier AI share. Amazon leads winners via Anthropic ties, while Salesforce faces risks; ranked analysis covers financials and exposure for MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, CRM.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Anthropic's Mythos model launch, per Bloomberg, marks a commercial AI inflection, supercharging AMZN's AWS (24% growth) and NVDA's chips (65% revenue surge) via deep partnerships and $10B+ investments. MSFT benefits from Azure multi-model hosting, while GOOGL trails. Bullish: Infrastructure leaders poised for dominance amid inference boom.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
May 2026 looms as Nvidia's inflection with launches and earnings, boosting supply chain (TSM, ASML, AMKR, AVGO) and cloud (MSFT) winners amid $1T AI projections. Ranked leaders: NVDA top, followed by TSMC and ASML. Watch supply ramps and guidance beats.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran conflict has exposed structural weaknesses in the US dollar's reserve currency status, creating winners and losers among US multinationals. Caterpillar and Apple stand to benefit most from dollar weakness due to their massive international revenue bases, while Costco faces margin pressure from higher import costs. Microsoft and Exxon present more nuanced cases with offsetting factors.
