Research · Sep 3, 2026
Merck FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $65.0B revenue (+1.3%). Keytruda+Qlex $31.68B (+7.5%, now 49% of total). Gardasil $5.23B (-39%, China destocking). Winrevair $1.44B (+244%, PAH); Capvaxive $759M (+683%, pneumo); Welireg $716M (+41%). Animal Health $6.35B (+8%). Net income $18.3B; OCF $16.5B; FCF $12.4B. Capital return $13.3B (div $8.2B + buyback $5.1B). 8 analysts: 6 Buy / 2 Hold (Citi, Cantor); consensus $137.13, range $120-$150. Feb-Apr 2026: 10 covered actions, all PT raises or new bullish initiations.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Biotech M&A 2026 on track for best year since 2018. Patent cliffs (Keytruda 2028, Trulicity 2027) drive LLY/MRK/PFE acquisition urgency.
Research · Apr 28, 2026
Eli Lilly's $2.3 billion Ajax Therapeutics acquisition reveals a critical divergence in large-cap pharma M&A strategy that the market has mispriced. While Merck and Pfizer scramble to replace patent cliff revenue with expensive blockbuster acquisitions, Lilly is buying rare-disease optionality from a position of GLP-1 strength. Long LLY versus short MRK/PFE targets 8-12% relative return over six months as earnings reveal the cost of desperate dealmaking.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Trump policies eroding Europe's pharma lead via tariffs favor US manufacturing-heavy Eli Lilly and Amgen, with strong growth and margins, while Pfizer and Merck's global chains invite cost squeezes. J&J and AbbVie sit in the middle with diversification. Rank: Buy LLY/AMGN, sell PFE/MRK.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Trump's proposed 100% pharma tariffs and China's biotech surge, per April 11 CNBC, threaten Europe's manufacturing edge, hiking costs for PFE (-2.8% 1M) and MRK (-5.1% 1M) while LLY's US focus drives 25% 2026 growth. Supply chain filings flag $100-200M hits; investors should fade exposed names, buy domestic leaders. Next catalysts: Earnings tariff disclosures and China trade flows.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Trump's pharma import tariffs shield U.S.-focused drugmakers like Eli Lilly and Amgen from cost hikes while pressuring import-reliant Pfizer and Merck. Analysis ranks six majors by exposure, highlighting financials and guidance. Domestic winners eye margin expansion amid onshoring push.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Trump's April 2 pharma tariff announcement highlights supply chain risks for LLY, TMO, and CVS, with SEC filings exposing China reliance. Stocks dipped mildly, but domestic manufacturing offers protection amid margin pressures.
