Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MOH] Molina Healthcare Thesis 2026: Medicaid Contract Wins Anchor Managed Care Cycle
Molina Healthcare Inc. FY2025 revenue ~$40-42B (+5-7%) with adj. EPS ~$22.00-23.00 reflecting continued Medicaid managed care contract wins + selected Medicare growth + selected Marketplace expansion partially offset by selected redetermination cycle volume normalization (post-COVID Medicaid eligibility redetermination compressed Medicaid membership FY2023-2025; Molina lost ~500-700K members during redetermination). Large US managed care organization specializing in Medicaid + Medicare + Marketplace plans; founded 1980 by Dr. C. David Molina in Long Beach California. Headquartered in Long Beach California. 3 segments: Medicaid ~70% ($28-30B — ~22 state Medicaid managed care contracts; ~3.5-4M+ members; major states include California + Texas + Washington + Ohio + Mississippi + Idaho + selected) + Medicare ~20% ($8-9B — Medicare Advantage + Special Needs Plans D-SNPs for dual-eligible; ~1M+ members) + Marketplace ~10% ($4-4.5B — ACA Marketplace plans; ~500-700K members). ~5.5M+ total members served (vs ~5M+ FY2022 pre-redetermination). CEO Joseph Zubretsky since November 2017 (succeeded Molina family-led leadership amid 2017 family departures + selected board-led operational reset; Zubretsky ex-The Hanover Insurance Group CEO 2013-2016 + ex-Aetna SVP 2007-2013; ~25-year insurance/managed care executive career). Zubretsky tenure executed transformational margin recovery + selected operational discipline + aggressive Medicaid RFP win track record 2018-2024 + selected Medicare Advantage growth + selected redetermination cycle navigation. Capital return: no dividend + buybacks $500M-1B (~1-2%/yr share count reduction); net debt minimal (selected MCO model with reserves); Ba2/BB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: Medicaid contract wins + Medicare Advantage growth + operational discipline + capital return. Risks: Medicaid reimbursement, contract retention, redetermination cycle.