Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MET] MetLife Thesis 2026: Group Benefits Operational Excellence + New Frontier Plan Anchor ROE Recovery
MetLife FY2025 revenue ~$71B with adj. EPS ~$8.85 and ROE ~11% (recovering from FY2023 trough ~6%, targeting 13-15% by FY2027 per New Frontier 2024 strategic plan). Group Benefits segment ($25B revenue, 89% combined ratio improving from 93% FY2022) is strategically distinctive — largest US employer benefits insurer serving 41,000+ employers + 90M+ lives. RIS pension risk transfer franchise top-3 US. Asia operations ($10B Japan + Korea) provides revenue diversification. CEO Michel Khalaf since May 2019. Capital return ~$5-6B/yr (dividend $1.5B + buybacks $3-4B) supports ~8-10% combined yield. FY2026 thesis: Group Benefits margin expansion + RIS PRT growth + Asia stable + MIM modest scaling drive ROE toward 13-15% target by FY2027; key risks: mortality reserve charges continuing, Asia demographic/currency challenges, RIS PRT competitive intensity from Athene/F&G/Prudential.