Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MEOH] Methanex Thesis 2026: Marine Methanol Demand Adds Structural Floor to Commodity Cycle
Methanex FY2025 adj. EBITDA ~$430M at ~$345/MT average methanol price as Chinese MTO demand partially recovered and marine bunker demand grew to ~2.3M MT (+53% YoY, ~310 methanol-fueled ships). Share count reduced to ~65M (from ~90M FY2019) via consistent buybacks — amplifying EPS leverage to price recovery. FY2026 thesis: marine methanol demand reaching ~3.0-3.5M MT as Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd newbuilds deliver; each $100/MT methanol price increase adds ~$250-320M EBITDA; Chinese MTO utilization recovery toward 65%+ adds ~$180-250M demand. Risk: Chinese coal-based methanol overcapacity caps price recovery ceiling.