Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MDGL] Madrigal Thesis 2026: Rezdiffra First-Mover in MASH Scales Toward Blockbuster
Madrigal FY2025 Rezdiffra revenue ~$445M — tracking toward $750-850M FY2026 annualized run rate at ~1,825 net patient adds/quarter. ~15,800 active patients at FY2025 exit vs ~100-300K diagnosed F2-F3 MASH in the US under specialist care. THR-β mechanism (direct hepatic fat reduction) mechanistically complementary to GLP-1 (systemic weight loss), not necessarily competitive. FY2026 thesis: GLP-1 MASH approval (expected semaglutide NDA FY2026) creates combination therapy opportunity; non-invasive FibroScan/ELF adoption expands diagnosable patient pool; cirrhosis F4 Phase 3 data by FY2027 could double addressable market; cash ~$1.6B provides runway through profitability inflection.