Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MAC] Macerich Thesis 2026: A Class-A Mall REIT Sheds Non-Core Assets and Bets on Premium Trophy Centers
The Macerich Company (NYSE: MAC) is a Santa Monica, California-headquartered REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of Class A regional shopping malls principally in California, Arizona, the New York/New Jersey Metro, and the Mid-Atlantic — historically the highest-quality mall portfolio in the public-REIT universe, with sales-per-square-foot productivity at the high end of the regional-mall industry. The company was founded in 1964 by Mace Siegel (who built and operated regional malls and from whom the company name derives) and IPO'd as a REIT in the 1990s; Tom O'Hern was the long-tenured CEO until Jackson Hsieh (a former Spirit Realty CEO and longtime real-estate-services executive) succeeded him in early 2024 to execute a turnaround. The portfolio is heavily concentrated in trophy centers: Scottsdale Fashion Square (Phoenix's premier mall — Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, Apple, Tesla, Tiffany), Tysons Corner Center (dominant Northern Virginia/D.C. mall), Queens Center (one of the highest-sales-productivity malls in the country, NYC), Washington Square (Portland — JV with PSP Investments), Biltmore Fashion Park (Phoenix luxury), Santa Monica Place, FlatIron Crossing (Denver suburb), Los Cerritos Center (LA), Vintage Faire (Modesto) and others. Many properties are owned through joint ventures with sovereign-wealth or pension partners (PSP, Heitman, GIC) — providing capital but meaning MAC's economic share is ~50-67% on many assets. The strategic backdrop: elevated leverage since the 2015-era acquisition push (~$6-7B+ net debt), hit hard by the 2020 COVID-19 mall stress (department-store anchor exits, tenant bankruptcies, lease restructurings); the company cut its dividend ~80% in 2023 to preserve cash, and in early 2024 brought in Jackson Hsieh to execute a 'Path Forward' plan — a multi-year program of (a) selling ~$2B+ of non-core assets, (b) using proceeds to pay down debt, (c) focusing capital on the highest-quality Class A centers, and (d) redeveloping select properties into mixed-use. The capital structure is sub-investment-grade with material refinancing risk in higher rates. MAC enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue selected various aggregate ~$750-840M, aggregate FFO/share ~$1.55-1.95, NOI ~$520-580M, under President & CEO Jackson Hsieh. The first thesis pillar is the Class-A mall portfolio plus the Path Forward plan: ~40+ regional malls totaling ~46M+ sq ft of GLA with sales productivity ~$800-1000+/sf at trophy centers (high end of regional-mall industry); the trophy centers are the focus — Scottsdale Fashion Square, Tysons Corner Center, Queens Center, Washington Square, Biltmore Fashion Park, Santa Monica Place, FlatIron Crossing — irreplaceable assets generating the bulk of NOI; the longer tail of secondary and tertiary malls have been divestiture candidates; tenancy spans department stores (Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillard's, Bloomingdale's, Neiman Marcus, plus redeveloped JCPenney/Sears boxes), specialty (Apple, Tesla, Aritzia, Lululemon, Sephora, Ulta, Athleta), luxury (Tiffany, Cartier, LV, Gucci where appropriate), restaurants/entertainment, and increasingly mixed-use (apartments and offices added to densify); the Path Forward plan (announced 2024, multi-year) — divest ~$2B+ of non-core assets, use proceeds for debt paydown + Class A reinvestment, acknowledging the portfolio has too many properties spread too thin; FY2025 dynamics are Class A leasing strong (post-COVID retail recovery, occupancy back toward ~93-95%, positive releasing spreads), asset-sale program in execution, debt paydown beginning, mixed-use redevelopment in various stages, NOI growing modestly; FY2026 catalyst is same-center NOI growth, asset-sale execution (leading deleveraging indicator), refinancing-economics on property-mortgage maturities, mixed-use milestones, major tenant moves; risks/competitors are department-store anchor bankruptcies (Macy's restructuring, Nordstrom's selective closures, Dillard's stable), specialty bankruptcies, e-commerce shift pressuring traffic, asset-sale pricing in a soft mall-investment-sales market, mixed-use execution; comp set is Simon Property Group (SPG, dominant mall REIT — larger, lower-leveraged, premium-multiple), CBL Properties (CBL), Tanger (SKT), Brookfield (BN/private), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), Federal Realty (FRT), Kimco (KIM). The second pillar is the leverage and turnaround story: the 2023 dividend cut (from ~$0.85 to ~$0.17 quarterly — ~80% reduction — preserving ~$100M+/year of cash for debt paydown and capex; current ~$0.68/share annually, ~4-5% yield); the leverage (net debt ~$6-7B+ at MAC's pro-rata economic share — property-level non-recourse mortgages on major properties + corporate senior unsecured notes + unsecured revolver + term loan — net debt/EBITDA ~9-12x, very elevated by REIT standards, the defining equity overhang — sub-IG Ba2/BB-area or lower); the refinancing wall (large tranches of property-mortgages and corporate notes step up over next several years — refinancings at higher rates compress NOI and force restructuring); the operational turnaround under Hsieh (re-tenanting anchor/inline boxes with stronger productivity tenants, anchor repositioning, mixed-use redevelopment at select Class A centers densifying with residential/office/hospitality, operational cost discipline); FY2025 dynamics are Class A leasing momentum, asset sales progressing, debt paydown beginning, modest NOI growth, mixed-use projects developing; FY2026 catalyst is asset-sale-driven debt paydown, refinancing outcomes, mixed-use milestones, dividend stability, operational KPIs; risks are renewed retail downturn, refinancing-rate shock, asset-sale pricing far below NAV, mixed-use disappointing, forced equity dilution, tail-restructuring scenario. The capital story: a deeply-leveraged dividend-cut REIT — ~$0.68/share dividend (post-cut from ~$3.40, ~4-5% yield, sustainable), no buybacks (cash to capex + debt paydown), net debt ~$6-7B+ (property-level non-recourse mortgages + corporate unsecured + term loan + revolver), ~9-12x net debt/EBITDA (very elevated), sub-IG (Ba2/BB-area), asset-sale-driven debt paydown primary deleveraging mechanism (hundreds of M/yr proceeds toward target leverage <~7-8x), ~220-260M shares (some dilution from past + potential future ATM), capex ~$200-300M+/yr (maintenance + redevelopment + tenant-improvement), capital allocation asset-sale-driven debt paydown → Class A reinvestment → dividend maintenance → mixed-use development, with the property-mortgage refinancing wall, rate environment, asset-sale execution, JV-partner dynamics, mixed-use capex, and tenant bankruptcies as the principal considerations. At ~$13-20 per share on ~220-260M shares (~$3.0-5.0B equity, ~$9-12B EV) MAC trades at roughly ~8-12x AFFO and ~30-50% of consensus NAV (~$20-35+/share NAV against ~$13-20 trading) — a deeply-discounted mall-REIT valuation — versus Simon Property Group (SPG, dominant lower-leveraged premium-multiple — the benchmark), CBL Properties (CBL), Tanger (SKT), Brookfield (BN/private), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), and retail-REIT comparators Kimco (KIM), Federal Realty (FRT), Regency Centers (REG). FY2026 base case: ~$770-860M revenue + ~$1.70-2.05 FFO/share + Class A leasing momentum + asset-sale program progressing + dividend stable + modest deleveraging + turnaround underway; bull case: ~$800-900M+ revenue + ~$1.90-2.50+ FFO/share on accelerated Class A leasing, faster asset-sale execution at attractive pricing (NAV-validating), lower-rate refinancings, mixed-use monetizing land value, dividend modestly raised (a confidence signal), NAV-discount compression toward ~15-25%, and a substantial re-rating; bear case: ~$700-770M revenue + ~$1.30-1.70 FFO/share on a retail-mall downturn, refinancing-rate shock, asset-sales well below NAV, mixed-use underperformance, possible further dividend reduction, equity dilution, and tail-risk restructuring scenario. The thesis depends on the Class-A-mall + Path-Forward pipeline (occupancy + leasing momentum + same-center NOI + asset divestitures + Class A focus) plus the dividend + leverage + operational-turnaround pipeline (debt paydown + refinancing outcomes + mixed-use redevelopment + Hsieh's improvements) plus a recovering retail/mall consumer backdrop plus rate cuts plus Hsieh's continued execution of the multi-year balance-sheet and portfolio turnaround.