Research · Sep 3, 2026
[LYB] LyondellBasell Thesis 2026: Petrochemical Cycle Trough Tests Cash Return Commitment
LyondellBasell Industries FY25 revenue $30.15B (-25%); op income -$327M (vs +$1.82B FY24); NI -$743M (vs +$1.36B); EPS -$2.35 (vs $4.15) — petrochemical cycle trough year. Industry margins ~45% below historical averages. Value enhancement program: $1.1B recurring annual EBITDA achieved in 2025; $1.5B target by 2028. Cash improvement program: $800M FY25 (vs $600M target — beat by $200M); cumulative $1.3B target through 2026 (incremental $500M FY26). 2025 was LYB's safest year on record (record low TRIR). FY26 framework: capex ~$1.2B ($400M growth + $800M sustaining); effective tax ~10%; Q1 operating rates O&P Americas + I&D ~85%.