Research · Sep 3, 2026
[LINE] Lineage Thesis 2026: Cold Storage Network Density Drives Pricing Power at 3B Cubic Feet
Lineage FY2025 (first full public year) revenue ~$5.42B with adj. EBITDA ~$1.53B at ~28.2% margins. Network of ~482 cold storage warehouses (~3.0B cubic feet, 84% occupancy) in 20+ countries creates local market density that drives pricing power over single-facility operators. Lineage Link WMS platform creates customer switching costs via ERP integration and cross-facility inventory optimization. AFFO ~$2.38/share on post-IPO share count. FY2026 thesis: occupancy toward 86-88% + 3-5% annual rate increases (scarcity in top-25 metro markets) compounds AFFO toward $2.60-2.80; Lineage Link data analytics services emerging as high-margin revenue layer above base storage fees.