Research · Sep 3, 2026
[LEN] Lennar Thesis 2026: Millrose Spinoff Pivots Land Strategy Toward Asset-Light Model
Lennar Corporation FY2025 revenue ~$36-37B (-1 to +1%) with adj. EPS ~$13.50-14.20 reflecting continued post-2022-2023 high mortgage rate environment + selected mortgage rate buydown incentives + selected Millrose Properties spinoff January 31, 2025 (transformational asset-light pivot following NVR's land-light model) + selected operational excellence under continued co-CEOs Stuart Miller (Executive Chairman + Co-CEO) + Jonathan Jaffe (President + Co-CEO). One of two largest US homebuilders (with DR Horton) focused on national footprint across ~20+ states with ~80,000 home deliveries annually; founded 1954 by Leonard Miller + Arnold Rosen in Miami Florida (originally F&R Builders; rebranded Lennar 1971; IPO 1971); headquartered in Miami Florida; ~12,000+ employees; fiscal year ends November. ~$36-37B revenue across ~80,000-83,000 home deliveries FY2025 (~$410-430K avg sales price). Millrose Properties spinoff completed January 31, 2025 — transformational asset-light pivot creating new publicly-traded REIT (Millrose Properties NYSE: MRP) holding ~$5-6B of Lennar's land + homesite inventory; Lennar shareholders received 1 Millrose share per 2 Lennar shares; Lennar acquires homesites from Millrose under fixed-price option contracts (NVR-style land-light model); strategic rationale: ROCE improvement toward 20%+ from ~13% historical + capital efficiency + ~$5B+ capital release for buybacks. 4 segments: East Homebuilding 41% ($15B — FL + Northeast + Mid-Atlantic + Southeast; FL ~30%+ exposure) + Central 27% ($10B — TX + Colorado) + West 27% ($10B — CA + AZ + Nevada) + Financial Services + Other 5% ($1.5B — Lennar Mortgage ~80%+ capture + Lennar Title). Co-CEOs Stuart Miller (Executive Chairman + Co-CEO since April 2018; CEO 1997-2018; ~43-year Lennar tenure since 1982 as son of founder Leonard Miller) + Jonathan Jaffe (President + Co-CEO since 2018; joined 1994; ~30+ year Lennar career). Miller-Jaffe co-CEO arrangement has executed 2018 CalAtlantic $9.3B all-cash + stock acquisition (transformational national footprint expansion) + 2020-2021 pandemic boom record results + 2022-2023 mortgage rate shock navigation + January 2025 Millrose Properties spinoff. Capital return: dividend $2.00-2.10/share annual + buybacks $1-2B; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Millrose execution + asset-light pivot + housing demand resilience + capital return. Risks: housing affordability, Millrose execution friction, regional cycle (FL + TX + CA exposure).