Research · Sep 3, 2026
[KMI] Kinder Morgan Thesis 2026: LNG Export Demand Anchors Natural Gas Pipeline Volume Growth + Capex Deployment Cycle
Kinder Morgan FY2025 revenue ~$15-16B (+1-2%) with adj. EPS ~$1.20-1.30 reflecting continued LNG export demand growth driving natural gas pipeline volumes + selected oil + product pipeline volume stability. One of the largest North American midstream companies operating ~83,000 total miles of pipelines (71,000 natural gas + 9,500 products + 1,300 CO2 + 1,200 other) + 144 terminals + 79M barrels storage. Natural Gas Pipelines (~$8B, 52% of revenue) is dominant segment transporting ~40% of all natural gas consumed in US; pipelines connect every major US producing basin (Permian, Marcellus, Haynesville, Eagle Ford) to every major demand center including Gulf Coast LNG export terminals (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Plaquemines, Rio Grande). CEO Kim Dang since Aug 2024 (succeeded Steve Kean). US LNG export capacity expanding from ~13.8 Bcf/day FY2024 to ~20-25 Bcf/day FY2027 driving multi-year natural gas pipeline volume growth + capex deployment opportunity. ~$5-7B capex announced FY2025-FY2027 for natural gas pipeline expansions (Tennessee Gas Pipeline + Permian Highway). Dividend $1.15/share annual (8 consecutive year increases). FY2026 thesis: LNG export demand drives natural gas pipeline volumes + capex deployment + dividend compounding. Risks: oil pipeline volumes declining structurally, regulatory pressure on new pipelines, energy transition long-term.