Research · Sep 3, 2026
[GGB] Gerdau S.A. Thesis 2026: Brazil Long Steel Drives Latin American Capital Return
Gerdau S.A. (NYSE: GGB; B3: GGBR4) FY2025 revenue ~Br$66-70B / ~$13.0-13.8B (-2-5%) with adj. EPS ~$1.45-1.65 ADR reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.0-13.8B aggregate Brazil Long Steel + Special Steel + North America Long Steel + South America Long Steel revenue (~12-13Mt aggregate crude steel production capacity + selected primary Brazil ~50%+ aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate North America + South America + Special Steel) under continued President + CEO Gustavo Werneck since January 2018 (~7-year tenure as Gerdau CEO; selected post-January 2018 succeeded André Gerdau Johannpeter retirement). The largest Brazil + Latin American specialty Long Steel + Special Steel producer. Founded 1901 as Hugo Gerdau Cutelaria by João Hugo Gerdau in Porto Alegre Brazil (~124-year heritage; selected pioneer Brazil Long Steel; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control); selected post-1948 Riograndense Steel acquisition; selected post-1961 NYSE listing ADR + selected post-1971 B3 listing; selected post-1980-2010 ~$10B+ cumulative North America (US + Canada) acquisitions (Ameristeel + Sheffield Steel + Co-Steel + Mini-mill); selected post-1985-2015 South America acquisitions (Diaco + Sipar). Headquartered in Porto Alegre Brazil; ~30,000-32,000 employees globally with ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel production capacity. Four primary segments: Brazil Long Steel ~50%+ ($6.5-7.0B), North America Long Steel ~36%+ ($4.5-5.0B), Special Steel ~13%+ ($1.5-1.8B), South America Long Steel ~6%+ ($0.8-1.0B). Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline (~$6.5-7.0B): ~$6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue (~50%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel; selected primary post-1901 founding Ouro Branco + Açominas + Pindamonhangaba + Cariacica; selected ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share; selected ~Br$6,500-7,500 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt. North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America pipeline + Diversification: selected continued post-1989-2010 North America (US + Canada) Long Steel + Mini-mill ~$4.5-5.0B revenue (~36%+; ~3.5-4.0Mt; Ameristeel + Manitoba Rolling Mill); selected Special Steel ~$1.5-1.8B revenue (~13%+; ~3-4Mt; Pindamonhangaba SBQ; Automotive + Oil & Gas + Wind + Industrial end-market); selected South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay) ~$0.8-1.0B revenue (~6%+; ~1.5-2.0Mt). President + CEO Gustavo Werneck since January 2018 (~7-year tenure); CFO Rafael Japur. Capital position: ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$700M-1.10B FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control via Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU). FY2026 thesis: Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline + North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America diversification + selected ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel capacity + selected ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield + Gerdau family heritage governance. Risks: ArcelorMittal Brasil + Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) + Usiminas + Nucor + Steel Dynamics + Cleveland-Cliffs + Commercial Metals competitive displacement + Brazilian real (BRL) currency considerations + Chinese steel import surge + Civil Construction cycle considerations + Brazilian government anti-dumping policy considerations.