Gerdau S.A. (NYSE: GGB; B3: GGBR4) FY2025 revenue ~Br$66-70B / ~$13.0-13.8B (-2-5%) with adj. EPS ~$1.45-1.65 ADR reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.0-13.8B aggregate Brazil Long Steel + Special Steel + North America Long Steel + South America Long Steel revenue (~12-13Mt aggregate crude steel production capacity + selected primary Brazil ~50%+ aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate North America + South America + Special Steel) under continued President + CEO Gustavo Werneck since January 2018 (~7-year tenure as Gerdau CEO; selected post-January 2018 succeeded André Gerdau Johannpeter retirement). The largest Brazil + Latin American specialty Long Steel + Special Steel producer. Founded 1901 as Hugo Gerdau Cutelaria by João Hugo Gerdau in Porto Alegre Brazil (~124-year heritage; selected pioneer Brazil Long Steel; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control); selected post-1948 Riograndense Steel acquisition; selected post-1961 NYSE listing ADR + selected post-1971 B3 listing; selected post-1980-2010 ~$10B+ cumulative North America (US + Canada) acquisitions (Ameristeel + Sheffield Steel + Co-Steel + Mini-mill); selected post-1985-2015 South America acquisitions (Diaco + Sipar). Headquartered in Porto Alegre Brazil; ~30,000-32,000 employees globally with ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel production capacity. Four primary segments: Brazil Long Steel ~50%+ ($6.5-7.0B), North America Long Steel ~36%+ ($4.5-5.0B), Special Steel ~13%+ ($1.5-1.8B), South America Long Steel ~6%+ ($0.8-1.0B). Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline (~$6.5-7.0B): ~$6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue (~50%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel; selected primary post-1901 founding Ouro Branco + Açominas + Pindamonhangaba + Cariacica; selected ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share; selected ~Br$6,500-7,500 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt. North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America pipeline + Diversification: selected continued post-1989-2010 North America (US + Canada) Long Steel + Mini-mill ~$4.5-5.0B revenue (~36%+; ~3.5-4.0Mt; Ameristeel + Manitoba Rolling Mill); selected Special Steel ~$1.5-1.8B revenue (~13%+; ~3-4Mt; Pindamonhangaba SBQ; Automotive + Oil & Gas + Wind + Industrial end-market); selected South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay) ~$0.8-1.0B revenue (~6%+; ~1.5-2.0Mt). President + CEO Gustavo Werneck since January 2018 (~7-year tenure); CFO Rafael Japur. Capital position: ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$700M-1.10B FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control via Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU). FY2026 thesis: Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline + North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America diversification + selected ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel capacity + selected ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield + Gerdau family heritage governance. Risks: ArcelorMittal Brasil + Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) + Usiminas + Nucor + Steel Dynamics + Cleveland-Cliffs + Commercial Metals competitive displacement + Brazilian real (BRL) currency considerations + Chinese steel import surge + Civil Construction cycle considerations + Brazilian government anti-dumping policy considerations.

[GGB] Gerdau S.A. Thesis 2026: Brazil Long Steel Drives Latin American Capital Return

Key Takeaways

GGB FY2025 revenue ~Br$66-70B / ~$13.0-13.8B (-2-5% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$1.45-1.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.0-13.8B aggregate Brazil Long Steel + Special Steel + North America Long Steel + South America Long Steel revenue (~12-13M aggregate metric tonnes (Mt) crude steel production capacity + selected primary Brazil ~50%+ aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate North America (US + Canada) + South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay) + selected various aggregate ~3-4Mt aggregate Special Steel production capacity) under continued President + CEO Gustavo Werneck since January 2018 (~7-year tenure as Gerdau CEO; selected post-January 2018 succeeded André Gerdau Johannpeter retirement; selected various aggregate Gerdau family ~75-year founding heritage).
Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction Pipeline (~$6.5-7.0B revenue): ~$6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue (~50%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel + selected primary post-1901 founding Ouro Branco + selected various aggregate Açominas + Pindamonhangaba + Cariacica + selected various aggregate ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share + selected various aggregate Civil Construction + Industrial + Agricultural end-market exposure + selected various aggregate ~Br$6,500-7,500 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt.
North America + Special Steel + South America Pipeline + Diversification: selected continued post-1989-2010 selected various aggregate North America (US + Canada) Long Steel + Mini-mill ~$4.5-5.0B aggregate revenue (~36%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-1989 Ameristeel + selected various aggregate Manitoba Rolling Mill + selected various aggregate ~3.5-4.0Mt aggregate North America Long Steel) + selected various aggregate Special Steel ~$1.5-1.8B aggregate revenue (~13%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Pindamonhangaba SBQ Special Bar Quality + selected various aggregate ~3-4Mt aggregate Special Steel + selected various aggregate Automotive + Oil & Gas + Wind + Industrial end-market) + selected various aggregate South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay) ~$0.8-1.0B aggregate revenue (~6%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~1.5-2.0Mt aggregate South America Long Steel).
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$700M-1.10B FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (selected ~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares (~750-770M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares).
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline (~$6.5-7.0B + ~~70%+ Brazil Long Steel market share) + North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America diversification (~~$6.8-7.8B aggregate combined) + selected ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel production capacity + selected ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield + selected ~Gerdau family ~75-year founding heritage.

Company Background

Gerdau S.A. (NYSE: GGB; B3: GGBR4) is the largest Brazil + Latin American specialty Long Steel + Special Steel producer, founded 1901 as Hugo Gerdau Cutelaria by João Hugo Gerdau in Porto Alegre Brazil (~124-year heritage; selected pioneer Brazil Long Steel; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control). Selected post-1948 ~$0M+ Riograndense Steel acquisition (entry into steel from cutlery); selected post-1961 NYSE listing ADR + selected post-1971 B3 listing; selected post-1980-2010 selected various aggregate ~$10B+ aggregate cumulative North America (US + Canada) acquisitions (Ameristeel + Sheffield Steel + Co-Steel + selected various aggregate Mini-mill); selected post-1985-2015 selected various aggregate South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay + Colombia + Venezuela + Dominican Republic + Mexico + Spain + India + selected various aggregate) acquisitions (Diaco + Sipar + selected various aggregate); selected post-2018 Gustavo Werneck CEO appointment (succeeded André Gerdau Johannpeter retirement; ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control); HQ Porto Alegre Brazil; ~30,000-32,000 employees globally; selected various aggregate ~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel production capacity across Brazil + North America + South America + Special Steel.

GGB operates 4 primary segments: Brazil Long Steel ~~50%+ revenue (~~$6.5-7.0B), North America Long Steel ~~36%+ revenue (~~$4.5-5.0B), Special Steel ~~13%+ revenue (~~$1.5-1.8B), South America Long Steel ~~6%+ revenue (~~$0.8-1.0B). Geographic mix: Brazil ~50%+ + North America ~36% + Special Steel ~13% + South America ~6%.

Capital position: ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$700M-1.10B FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares; selected ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control via Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU) controlling structure.

Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction Pipeline (~$6.5-7.0B Revenue)

The Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline is GGB's foundation thesis: ~$6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue (~50%+ revenue mix) + selected primary ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel + selected primary post-1901 founding Ouro Branco + selected various aggregate Açominas + Pindamonhangaba + Cariacica + selected various aggregate ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share + selected various aggregate Civil Construction + Industrial + Agricultural end-market exposure + selected various aggregate ~Br$6,500-7,500 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt. Selected primary GGB platform: ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share + Civil Construction + Industrial + Agricultural end-market exposure.

FY2025 Brazil Long Steel dynamics ($6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~-2-5% aggregate Brazil revenue decline (cyclical Civil Construction + Brazilian real (BRL) currency considerations + selected various aggregate competitive imports from China) + ~$6.5-7.0B aggregate Brazil revenue + selected various aggregate ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel + selected various aggregate ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share + selected various aggregate ~Br$6,500-7,500 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt. Selected post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual ADR EPS contribution as Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction cycle drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Brazil Long Steel + ON Civil Construction pipeline + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual ADR EPS contribution under continued Gustavo Werneck leadership (~7-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$6.7-7.2B aggregate Brazil revenue + selected various ~+0-5% aggregate Brazil revenue recovery + selected various aggregate ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel + selected various aggregate ~Br$7,000-8,000 aggregate Brazil Long Steel realized price per Mt + selected various aggregate Brazilian Federal Reserve (BCB) interest rate cycle + selected various aggregate Brazilian real (BRL) currency considerations. Risks: ArcelorMittal Brasil + Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) + Usiminas (USIM5) + selected various aggregate Chinese imports + selected various aggregate Brazil Long Steel competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Brazilian real (BRL) currency considerations + Brazilian government anti-dumping policy considerations.

North America + Special Steel + South America Pipeline + Diversification

The North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America pipeline + Diversification is GGB's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-1989-2010 selected various aggregate North America (US + Canada) Long Steel + Mini-mill ~$4.5-5.0B aggregate revenue (~36%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-1989 Ameristeel + selected various aggregate Manitoba Rolling Mill + selected various aggregate ~3.5-4.0Mt aggregate North America Long Steel + selected various aggregate ~$0.10-0.15 aggregate annual ADR EPS contribution from North America) + selected various aggregate Special Steel ~$1.5-1.8B aggregate revenue (~13%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Pindamonhangaba SBQ Special Bar Quality + selected various aggregate ~3-4Mt aggregate Special Steel + selected various aggregate Automotive + Oil & Gas + Wind + Industrial end-market) + selected various aggregate South America (Argentina + Chile + Peru + Uruguay) ~$0.8-1.0B aggregate revenue (~6%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~1.5-2.0Mt aggregate South America Long Steel).

FY2025 North America + Special Steel + South America dynamics: selected primary post-1989-2010 North America (US + Canada) ~$4.5-5.0B aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate Special Steel ~$1.5-1.8B aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate South America ~$0.8-1.0B aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.50 aggregate annual ADR EPS contribution from North America + Special Steel + South America. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual ADR EPS contribution as diversification drives incremental Brazil concentration de-risking.

FY2026 catalyst: continued North America + Special Steel + South America pipeline + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental ADR EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$4.7-5.3B aggregate North America revenue + selected various aggregate ~$1.6-1.9B aggregate Special Steel revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate South America revenue + selected various aggregate Trump administration steel tariff cycle + selected various aggregate Argentine peso (ARS) currency considerations. Risks: Nucor (NUE) + Steel Dynamics (STLD) + Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) + Commercial Metals (CMC) + selected various aggregate North America Long Steel competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Special Steel + Automotive + Oil & Gas + Wind end-market cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield) + ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$700M-1.10B FY2025 + net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet) + investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating + ~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares + selected ~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control via Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU) controlling structure.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$700M-1.20B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend + selected continued ~0.5-1.0x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~$300-500M aggregate annual buybacks. Selected ~25-30%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating support continued capital return + Brazil Long Steel + Special Steel + North America Mini-mill expansion + tuck-in M&A capacity.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~Br$66-70B / ~$13.0-13.8B (-2-5% YoY) vs $14.0B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$1.45-1.65 ADR
4 segments: Brazil Long Steel ~50%+ ($6.5-7.0B) + North America Long Steel ~36%+ ($4.5-5.0B) + Special Steel ~13%+ ($1.5-1.8B) + South America Long Steel ~6%+ ($0.8-1.0B)
Brazil: ~6.5-7.0Mt aggregate Brazil Long Steel; ~70%+ aggregate Brazil Long Steel market share
North America: ~3.5-4.0Mt aggregate North America Long Steel; Ameristeel + Manitoba Rolling Mill
Special Steel: ~3-4Mt aggregate Special Steel; Pindamonhangaba SBQ
South America: ~1.5-2.0Mt aggregate South America Long Steel; Diaco + Sipar
~12-13Mt aggregate global crude steel production capacity
Net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA
~2,030-2,050M aggregate Brazil-listed shares (~750-770M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted)
~$700M-1.10B total capital return FY2025
Dividend ~$0.40-0.55 ADR annual (~25-30%+ payout; ~10-13% yield)
~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
Investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating
~75-year Gerdau family founding heritage continuous control via Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU)

Market Evaluation

GGB FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$3.5-4.5 ADR share price + ~750-770M ADR-equivalent diluted shares = ~$3-4B market cap; ~$0.40-0.55 aggregate annual ADR dividend + ~10-13% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary GGB peers: ArcelorMittal Brasil + Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN, ~$3-4B Mcap) + Usiminas (USIM5, ~$1.5-2B) + Nucor (NUE, ~$25-30B) + Steel Dynamics (STLD, ~$15-18B) + Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF, ~$5-6B) + Commercial Metals (CMC, ~$5-6B) + Companhia Vale + Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU, controlling holding) + selected various aggregate global Long Steel + Special Steel producers. Selected GGB ~5-7x P/E + selected ~3-4x EV/EBITDA + selected ~10-13% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$13.5-14.5B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$1.55-1.85 aggregate FY2026 ADR EPS + selected aggregate ~$700M-1.20B aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Brazil Long Steel + North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$13.5-14.5B aggregate revenue + ~$1.55-1.85 adj. ADR EPS + ~$700M-1.20B aggregate capital return. Bull case: Brazil Long Steel cycle recovery + North America Mini-mill margin expansion + Special Steel automotive cycle + Brazilian real (BRL) appreciation + Trump administration steel tariff cycle drives ~$14.0-15.0B aggregate revenue + ~$1.85-2.20 ADR EPS. Bear case: ArcelorMittal Brasil + CSN + Usiminas + Nucor + Steel Dynamics + Cleveland-Cliffs + Commercial Metals competitive intensification + Brazilian real (BRL) depreciation + Chinese steel import surge + Civil Construction cycle considerations + Brazilian government anti-dumping policy considerations + Argentine peso (ARS) depreciation considerations drives ~$13.0-13.8B revenue + ~$1.30-1.50 ADR EPS. The thesis depends on Brazil Long Steel market share + North America Mini-mill + Special Steel + South America diversification + Gerdau family heritage governance.