Research · Sep 3, 2026
[GFL] GFL Environmental Thesis 2026: Environmental Services Divestiture Funds Record Buyback Program
GFL Environmental Inc. FY25 revenue C$6.62B (-16% YoY reflecting March 1, 2025 Environmental Services divestiture); op income C$400M; NI C$3.83B (vs -C$723M FY24, includes ES sale gain); EPS C$9.99 (vs -C$2.11). Q1 FY25: ES business sold for ~$6B cash proceeds; $3.5B+ debt repaid; $2.5B+ shares repurchased; net leverage 3.1x (lowest in company history); credit ratings upgraded by S&P + Moody's. Q2 FY25: consolidated revenue $1.675B (+9.5% pro forma); adjusted EBITDA margin 30.7% (+230bp YoY); pricing 5.8% (+30bp ahead of plan); volume positive 3rd consecutive quarter; US +200bp sequential volume acceleration; solid waste adjusted EBITDA margin 34.7% (highest Q2 in company history); 3 tuck-in M&A completed; 3 more closing. FY25 buyback C$2.97B. Total debt C$7.93B (-25% from $10.55B FY24). FY25 guidance raised mid-year: revenue $6.55-$6.75B; adjusted EBITDA $1.95-$1.975B (+$50M from original); Q3 revenue $1.69-$1.695B; Q3 adj EBITDA $525M / ~31% margin. M&A pipeline robust; $700M-$900M annual M&A target. Strategic EPR + RNG investments. Investment grade credit focus. Risks: solid waste cyclical, competitive landscape (WM, Republic, Waste Connections, Casella), permitting, FX (CAD/USD), labor + driver shortage.