Research · Sep 3, 2026
[FRPT] Freshpet Thesis 2026: Ennis Utilization Drives First Year of Meaningful Adj. EBITDA
Freshpet's FY2025 inflection: revenue ~$1.225B (+22%), gross margin ~43% (up from 39% FY2024) as the Ennis TX facility hit ~75% utilization — the structural improvement bulls awaited. Adj. EBITDA ~$145M at ~11.8%, first year of meaningful profitability. FY2026 thesis: Ennis approaching 90% utilization at ~$1.5B revenue drives gross margin toward 46-48% and adj. EBITDA toward $200-250M; household penetration growing from ~8% toward ~15% of dog/cat owners sustains 18-22% revenue growth without aggressive new fridge deployment.