Research · Sep 3, 2026
[FHN] First Horizon Thesis 2026: Southeast Regional Banking Cycle Drives NIM Stability
First Horizon Corp. (NYSE: FHN) FY2025 revenue (net interest income + non-interest income) ~$3.2-3.4B (+1-5%) with adj. EPS ~$1.65-1.85 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$80-83B aggregate total assets (~+0-3% YoY) + selected continued post-2024 ~3.30-3.45% aggregate net interest margin (NIM) stability + selected post-May 2023 selected various TD Bank acquisition termination + selected various ~$200M aggregate termination fee + selected continued post-May 2023 selected various standalone strategic refocus under continued President + CEO Bryan Jordan since 2008 (~17-year tenure as First Horizon CEO). One of the largest US Southeast regional banks. Founded 1864 as First National Bank of Memphis (~161-year heritage); selected post-2004 First Tennessee Bancshares → First Horizon name change; selected post-2008 Bryan Jordan CEO appointment; selected post-2020 ~$2.0B IBERIABANK acquisition; selected post-February 2022 ~$13.4B TD Bank acquisition agreement; selected post-May 2023 TD Bank acquisition termination + ~$200M termination fee. Headquartered in Memphis Tennessee; ~7,400+ employees globally with ~$3.2-3.4B revenue. Loan portfolio mix: Commercial Loans (~50%+ ~$30-32B), Consumer Loans (~25% ~$15-16B), Specialty Lending (~15-20% ~$9-12B), Other (~5% ~$3-5B). Geographic mix: US Southeast (Tennessee + Florida + Louisiana + selected various) ~70%+ + US Mid-Atlantic + selected various ~30%. Southeast US regional banking cycle: ~$80-83B aggregate total assets; ~3.30-3.45% NIM stability. TD Bank termination + standalone strategic refocus: post-May 2023 ~$13.4B TD Bank acquisition termination + ~$200M termination fee; ~$3-5B FY2024-2025 buyback acceleration. President + CEO Bryan Jordan since 2008 (~17-year tenure); CFO Hope Dmuchowski. Capital return: ~$0.60 annual dividend FY2025 (~16-year continuous dividend track post-2009); ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$500-700M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$830-1.05B; CET1 ratio ~11.5-12.5%; investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Southeast US regional banking cycle + Post-May 2023 TD Bank termination + standalone strategic refocus + ~$0.60 annual dividend + ~16-year continuous dividend track + ~$830-1.10B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-2024 ~11.5-12.5% CET1 ratio + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: Truist + Regions + PNC competition, US Southeast macro, NIM compression vs Fed funds, commercial real estate cycle, post-May 2023 standalone strategic execution.