Research · Sep 3, 2026
[EQT] EQT Thesis 2026: Equitrans Acquisition Doubles Scale, Transforms Into Integrated Gas Company
EQT Corporation FY25 revenue $9.07B (+74% YoY from $5.22B FY24); op income $3.15B (+359%); NI $2.04B (+784%); EPS $3.31 (vs $0.41 FY24). FCF $2.84B (+395%). Capex $2.29B. Total debt $7.80B (-17% YoY) — meaningful deleveraging. Dividends $-389M (+19%). Q4 strong free cash flow generation; opportunistic hedging strategy. Winter Storm Fern showcased operational strength + value creation. Growth projects in compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector Pipeline, land acquisitions strengthening the platform. FY26 guide: production 2.275-2.375 Tcfe; maintenance capital budget $2.07-$2.21B; adjusted EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B (including growth investments); hedged ~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q3 / ~20% Q4 2026 with specific floor + ceiling prices. Risks: Henry Hub price volatility, hedge book coverage, Marcellus-Utica concentration, pipeline takeaway, Equitrans integration, LNG demand pace, AI power demand, carbon policy, competitive landscape (Antero, Range, CNX, Coterra), cost inflation, severe weather.