EQT 2025-26: Revenue $9.07B (+74%), FY26 Adj EBITDA ~$6.5B, FCF ~$3.5B

FY25 revenue $9.07B (+74% YoY from $5.22B FY24); op income $3.15B (+359%); NI $2.04B (+784%); EPS $3.31 (vs $0.41 FY24). FCF $2.84B (+395%). Capex $2.29B. Total debt $7.80B (-17% YoY) — meaningful deleveraging. Dividends $-389M (+19%). Q4 strong free cash flow generation; opportunistic hedging strategy. Winter Storm Fern showcased operational strength + value creation. Growth projects in compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector Pipeline, land acquisitions strengthening the platform. FY26 guide: production 2.275-2.375 Tcfe; maintenance capital budget $2.07-$2.21B; adjusted EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B (including growth investments); hedged ~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q3 / ~20% Q4 2026 with specific floor and ceiling prices.

Key takeaways

• Revenue +74% YoY to $9.07B; FCF +395% to $2.84B — natgas price recovery + structural ops improvements compounding. EQT FY25 saw a dramatic turnaround vs FY24: revenue +74% to $9.07B reflects (a) FY24's depressed Henry Hub natgas pricing recovering in 2025, (b) full-year contribution from the Equitrans Midstream merger (closed July 2024), (c) production growth + compression project ramp, (d) opportunistic hedging that captured upside. FCF +395% to $2.84B is the cleanest evidence of the natgas cycle inflection + operational leverage flowing through. EPS $3.31 vs $0.41 FY24 = 8x earnings recovery.

• FY26 guide: adj EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B (with growth) — sustained multi-year compounding. Management guided FY26 adjusted EBITDA to ~$6.5B and FCF to $3.5B INCLUDING growth investments. Compared to FY25 adj EBITDA estimate ($5.5-5.8B implied) and FCF $2.84B, the FY26 framework reflects continued natgas price tailwind + production growth (2.275-2.375 Tcfe) + compression / midstream contributions. The $3.5B FCF includes growth capex investment — meaning the underlying generation is even stronger before reinvestment.

• Production 2.275-2.375 Tcfe FY26; structural compression + Clarington Connector + water + land — multi-year platform strengthening. FY26 production guide 2.275-2.375 Tcfe (midpoint 2.325 Tcfe = ~6.4 Bcf/d). Maintenance capital $2.07-$2.21B. Growth projects (compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector Pipeline, strategic land acquisitions) are deliberately layering in incremental capacity + connectivity. Multi-year platform investment thesis: build out the integrated Marcellus-Utica natgas + midstream platform with structural cost advantages.

• Total debt -17% YoY to $7.80B — deleveraging balance sheet. Debt declined from $9.37B (FY24) to $7.80B (FY25) — ~$1.57B reduction. This reflects (a) FCF deployment to debt paydown, (b) post-merger integration of Equitrans Midstream balance sheet, (c) management's stated deleveraging priority. Going forward, lower leverage + higher FCF = capacity for capital return + further growth investment + balance sheet flexibility through commodity cycles.

• Hedging: ~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q3 / ~20% Q4 2026 — opportunistic positioning. Management characterized FY25 hedging as opportunistic (capturing upside vs locking in floors). FY26 hedge book: ~40% of Q1 / ~20% of Q2-Q3 / ~20% of Q4 with specific floor and ceiling prices. The relatively modest hedge coverage (vs sector peers often hedging 50-60%+) reflects EQT's cost leadership conviction (lowest-cost Appalachian natgas producer can ride spot pricing through cycles).

Business

EQT Corporation is the largest natural gas producer in the United States, with an integrated Marcellus-Utica platform + Equitrans Midstream:

• Upstream Production (~75% of revenue): ~2.275-2.375 Tcfe production (FY26 guide; midpoint ~6.4 Bcf/d). Marcellus + Utica shale, Pennsylvania + West Virginia + Ohio. Lowest-cost natgas producer in Appalachia; multi-decade reserves.
• Equitrans Midstream (~20% of revenue): Pipeline, gathering, transmission, storage. MVP (Mountain Valley Pipeline) operating. Clarington Connector Pipeline in development. Multi-state Appalachian gathering systems.
• Other / Marketing (~5%): NGL marketing, water infrastructure, ancillary services.

Strategic moves FY25:

• Revenue +74% on natgas price recovery + Equitrans full-year contribution
• Production growth supported by compression projects
• FCF +395% to $2.84B
• Total debt -17% to $7.80B (deleveraging)
• Winter Storm Fern operational strength + value creation
• Clarington Connector Pipeline development advancing
• Compression project layering across platform
• Water infrastructure expansion
• Strategic land acquisitions strengthening Marcellus + Utica position
• Opportunistic FY25 hedging captured upside

FY25 financial performance

Note: FY22 revenue $12.14B reflects the Russia-Ukraine natgas price shock peak. FY23-24 revenue normalized lower as natgas prices fell. FY24 also reflects partial year of Equitrans Midstream merger (closed July 2024). FY25 represents both natgas price recovery + first full year of merged platform.

The earnings progression: revenue trajectory tracks natgas price + production cycle. FY24 was the trough (op income $685M; EPS $0.41); FY25 inflection back to $9.07B revenue + $3.31 EPS. Total debt $7.80B (-17% YoY) — meaningful balance sheet improvement.

Capex $2.29B FY25 (+2% YoY); FCF $2.84B FY25 reflecting strong generation. Dividend $390M (+19% YoY) — progressive dividend policy. No buyback FY24-25 (capital return prioritized via dividend + debt paydown).

Capital allocation

• Capex: $-2.29B FY25 (+2% YoY); FY26 maintenance $2.07-$2.21B.
• Dividends: $-390M FY25 (+19% YoY) — progressive dividend.
• Buybacks: $0 (focused on debt paydown).
• Total debt: $7.80B (-17% YoY).
• FCF: $2.84B FY25 (+395% YoY).

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-18)

Management noted continued structural improvements + opportunistic hedging strategy + growth project layering.

Key risks

Henry Hub natural gas price volatility. EQT's economics are dominated by Henry Hub natgas pricing. Multi-year price swings drive material earnings volatility. FY24 trough → FY25 recovery shows the magnitude of cycle exposure.

Hedge book coverage. ~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q4 hedge coverage is relatively low vs sector peers. Opportunistic positioning captures upside but exposes to downside if natgas prices roll over.

Marcellus-Utica geographic concentration. ~95%+ of production from Pennsylvania + West Virginia + Ohio. Concentration risk: state-level regulatory + tax + permitting + pipeline takeaway dynamics matter.

Pipeline takeaway capacity. Marcellus / Utica gas requires takeaway capacity to demand markets. MVP, Equitrans gathering, Cove Point LNG access, Permian / Gulf demand all matter. Constrained takeaway = differential blowouts vs Henry Hub.

Equitrans Midstream integration. Multi-year integration of Equitrans (closed July 2024) is ongoing. Synergies + integration costs + asset optimization on track but require continued execution.

LNG export demand growth. Multi-year LNG export demand (Cove Point + Sabine Pass + Plaquemines + Cameron + Corpus Christi expansions) is positive for natgas demand. Any LNG project delays / cancellations affect demand outlook.

Power demand from data centers / AI. AI data center natgas demand is a multi-year tailwind for Appalachian gas. Speed + magnitude of data center buildout matters.

Carbon policy + emissions regulations. Methane emissions regulations + carbon pricing + state-level climate policy create ongoing compliance + operational requirements.

ESG investor pressure. Multi-year investor pressure on fossil fuel exposure can affect equity valuation + cost of capital.

Competitive landscape. Antero Resources, Range Resources, CNX Resources, Cabot, Coterra, Comstock, Chesapeake, Southwestern (now Coterra) all compete in Appalachia + adjacent basins.

Cost inflation. Service costs (drilling rigs, frac crews, sand, water, casing, labor) all subject to multi-year inflation pressure. Cost discipline matters.

Land + lease economics. Mineral rights + leasing + drilling permits all require ongoing investment + relationships.

Severe weather risk. Winter storms + hurricanes + flooding can disrupt production + offtake. Winter Storm Fern in FY25 was managed well; future events possible.

Interest rate environment. Refinancing of $7.80B total debt sensitive to rate environment.

Bottom line

EQT FY25 is the dramatic recovery + integrated platform inflection year: revenue $9.07B (+74%); op income $3.15B (+359%); NI $2.04B (+784%); EPS $3.31 (vs $0.41 FY24). FCF $2.84B (+395%). Total debt $7.80B (-17%) — meaningful deleveraging. Q4 strong FCF generation; opportunistic hedging captured upside. Winter Storm Fern showcased operational strength. Compression projects, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector Pipeline, land acquisitions all advancing.

FY26 guide: production 2.275-2.375 Tcfe; maintenance capex $2.07-$2.21B; adjusted EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B (with growth investments); Q1 hedge ~40% / Q2-Q3 ~20% / Q4 ~20%.

The risks are real — Henry Hub natgas price volatility, hedge book coverage (~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q4), Marcellus-Utica geographic concentration, pipeline takeaway capacity, Equitrans Midstream integration, LNG export demand growth pace, power demand from data centers / AI, carbon policy + emissions regulations, ESG investor pressure, competitive landscape (Antero, Range, CNX, Coterra), cost inflation, land + lease economics, severe weather, interest rate environment.

But the structural thesis (largest US natural gas producer + integrated Marcellus-Utica platform + Equitrans Midstream merged + ~6.4 Bcf/d production + lowest-cost Appalachian producer + multi-decade reserves + Mountain Valley Pipeline operational + Clarington Connector advancing + compression / water / land growth projects + LNG export demand tailwind + AI data center power demand tailwind + balance sheet deleveraging + ~$3.5B FY26 FCF) is intact and FY25 confirms.

Quality US natural gas + integrated midstream compounder mid-recovery-cycle, with cost leadership + integrated platform + multi-year LNG / power demand tailwinds + balance sheet deleveraging. The FY25 +74% revenue + +395% FCF + -17% debt + Q4 strong FCF + Winter Storm Fern operational proof + FY26 ~$6.5B adj EBITDA + ~$3.5B FCF + 2.275-2.375 Tcfe production + opportunistic hedge book + multi-project growth pipeline creates one of the cleaner US natgas + midstream compounding setups for investors seeking exposure to natgas price recovery + AI data center demand + LNG export growth + Appalachian cost leadership. The conservative FY26 framework + multi-year LNG demand + AI power demand + balance sheet deleveraging + integrated platform + cost moat + Equitrans Midstream synergies provides multiple paths to outperformance over a multi-year horizon. Henry Hub price volatility + pipeline capacity + hedge book + ESG dynamics remain ongoing risks, but the cost leadership + integrated platform + multi-year demand tailwinds + balance sheet improvement support continued compounding through cycles.

Citations

• EQT Corporation FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
• EQT Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-18 — 2025 stellar year with strong operating performance, structural improvements in operations, meaningful FCF generation; Winter Storm Fern operational strength + value creation; strong Q4 FCF; deleveraging balance sheet; opportunistic hedging strategy; growth projects in compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector Pipeline, land acquisitions; FY26 production 2.275-2.375 Tcfe; maintenance capital budget $2.07-$2.21B; adjusted EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B (including growth investments); hedged ~40% Q1 / ~20% Q2-Q3 / ~20% Q4 2026 with specific floor + ceiling prices.
• EQT Q3 / Q2 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting natgas price + production + integration trajectory.
• Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).