Research · Sep 3, 2026
[DVA] DaVita Thesis 2026: Berkshire Stake Tests GLP-1 Long-Term Impact on Dialysis Demand
DaVita Inc. FY2025 revenue ~$13-13.5B (+3-5%) with adj. EPS ~$10.00-10.50 reflecting continued Medicare reimbursement modest annual increases + selected patient census recovery + selected operational discipline + selected aggressive buyback program partially offset by selected labor cost inflation. Largest US dialysis services provider serving ~200K+ patients across ~3,100 dialysis centers. Founded 1979 as Total Renal Care; rebranded DaVita 2000. 2 segments: US Dialysis ~85% ($11B — ~3,100 outpatient dialysis centers + selected hospital-based dialysis + selected home dialysis 12-15% of patient census growing; patient mix Medicare 70% + commercial 25% + Medicaid 5%) + International + Other ~15% ($2-2.5B — selected ~10 countries + selected pharmacy + ancillary). CEO Javier Rodriguez since June 2019 (succeeded Kent Thiry CEO 1999-2019; ex-DaVita Group President 2014-2019; ~25-year DaVita career). Rodriguez tenure executed continued operational excellence + selected international expansion + aggressive capital return ($1-1.5B annual buybacks ~5-7%/yr share count reduction). Berkshire Hathaway ~40%+ ownership stake (~$3.5-4B Berkshire investment; Buffett long-term holder since 2011-2012 build-up; selected long-term ownership stability + capital markets credibility). GLP-1 weight-loss drug long-term impact thesis: GLP-1s demonstrating selected reduction in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in clinical trials (FLOW trial 2024 showed semaglutide reduced kidney disease progression 24% in CKD patients); long-term implications: short-term minimal impact, medium-term (5-15 yr) potential 15-20% reduction in new dialysis incidence, long-term structural reduction. Capital return: no dividend + buybacks $1-1.5B (aggressive); net debt $8-9B; Ba1/BB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: Berkshire stake + Medicare + GLP-1 long-term + capital return. Risks: Medicare reimbursement, GLP-1 long-term, labor costs.