Research · Sep 3, 2026
[DINO] HF Sinclair Thesis 2026: Refining Crack Spread Cycle Drives Renewable Diesel Capital Return
HF Sinclair Corp. (NYSE: DINO) FY2025 revenue ~$26-29B (+0-10%) with adj. EPS ~$3.20-4.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~678K Bbl/d aggregate Refining capacity (selected ~7 US refineries) + selected continued post-2024 selected various Lubricants & Specialty Products + selected various Marketing + selected various Midstream + selected various Renewable Diesel + selected post-March 2022 ~$1.8B aggregate Sinclair Oil acquisition completion under continued President + CEO Tim Go since November 2024 (~1-year tenure as HF Sinclair CEO). One of the largest US PADD IV Rocky Mountain + PADD III Mid-Continent independent refiners. Founded 2011 as HollyFrontier Corporation via Holly Corporation + Frontier Oil Corporation ~$3.0B aggregate merger; selected post-March 2022 ~$1.8B aggregate Sinclair Oil acquisition completion + name change to HF Sinclair; selected post-November 2024 Tim Go CEO appointment. Headquartered in Dallas Texas; ~3,000+ employees globally with ~$26-29B revenue. Five primary business segments: Refining (~80%+ ~$21-23B), Renewable Diesel + Lubricants & Specialty Products (~10% ~$2.6-2.9B), Marketing (~5% ~$1.3-1.45B), Midstream (~3% ~$0.8-0.9B), Other (~2% ~$0.5-0.6B). Geographic mix: US ~95%+ + Canada + selected various ~5%. Refining crack spread cycle: ~678K Bbl/d aggregate Refining capacity; ~$5-12 aggregate WTI Brent + 3-2-1 crack spread + selected various refining margin recovery cycle. Lubricants + Renewable Diesel + Marketing + Midstream: selected continued post-2024 Petro-Canada Lubricants + Red Giant Oil + selected various; ~1,500+ Sinclair-branded gas stations; Holly Energy Partners ~9,500+ miles pipelines; Renewable Diesel ramp Cheyenne Wyoming + Artesia New Mexico. President + CEO Tim Go since November 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Atanas Atanasov. Capital return: ~$2.00 annual dividend FY2025 (~14-year continuous dividend track); ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$700M-1.2B aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$1.1-1.6B; net leverage ratio ~0.8-1.2x; investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Refining crack spread cycle + Renewable Diesel + Lubricants + Marketing + Midstream diversification + selected post-March 2022 Sinclair Oil acquisition integration + ~$2.00 annual dividend + ~14-year continuous dividend track + ~$700M-1.3B aggregate annual buybacks + selected post-March 2022 deleveraging + selected potential post-deleveraging dividend acceleration. Risks: refining crack spread cyclical, Marathon + Phillips 66 + Valero + PBF competition, WTI + Brent pricing volatility, Renewable Diesel cycle, Sinclair integration execution.