Research · Sep 3, 2026
[DHI] D.R. Horton Thesis 2026: Capital Return and Revenue Guidance Signal Market Share Leadership
D.R. Horton, Inc. FY25 (Sep year-end) revenue $34.25B (-7%); op income $4.42B (-28%); NI $3.59B (-25%); EPS $11.57 (-19%). Q4 net sales orders 20,078 homes (+5%); order value $7.3B (+3%). Q4 home sales revenue $8.5B on 23,368 homes; ASP $365,600. Q4 gross margin 20% (-180bp QoQ). FY homebuilding pretax ROI 20.1%; ROE 14.6%; ROA 10%. ~85K closings; ~43K first-time buyers (51%). FY OCF $3.4B; $4.8B returned to shareholders ($4.28B buyback +140% / $495M dividends +25%); inventory -21%. FY26: revenue $33.5-$35B; closings 86-88K; Q1 gross margin 20-20.5%; ≥$3B OCF; ~$2.5B buyback; ~$500M dividends. Risks: affordability + rates, incentive-driven margin pressure, inventory normalization, regional concentration, labor / materials cost, competitive landscape.