Research · Sep 3, 2026
Deere & Company FY2025 revenue ~$45-48B (-15-20%) with adj. EPS ~$19-22 reflecting significant agriculture cycle downturn (commodity grain prices declined + farmer income compression + dealer destocking + lower fleet replacement demand) partially offset by precision agriculture technology premium pricing + selected operational discipline. Largest US agricultural + construction + forestry equipment manufacturer; founded 1837 by John Deere as one-man blacksmith shop in Grand Detour Illinois. 4 segments: Production & Precision Ag ~$12-14B (~28% — large agriculture machinery; combines + tractors + planters in row crop production), Small Agriculture & Turf ~$10-12B (~25%), Construction & Forestry ~$11-13B (~25% — Wirtgen acquired 2017 ~$5B), Financial Services (John Deere Financial) ~$5-6B (~12% — ~$50B+ receivables). CEO John May since November 4, 2019 (~5+ year tenure; ex-Deere CIO + Construction & Forestry leadership; succeeded Samuel Allen who became Executive Chair). Agriculture cycle: FY2022-2023 peak (record crop prices + record adj. EPS $34.63 FY2023) → FY2024-2025 trough (revenue -16% FY2024 + further -15-20% FY2025). Precision agriculture transformation: See & Spray (camera + AI computer vision targeted herbicide application; ~50%+ herbicide reduction) + ExactEmerge (precision planting) + StarFire (GPS positioning) + selected; ~$50-100K+ technology premium per large machine. Autonomy roadmap: autonomous tractors target 2030+ commercial. Capital return: dividend $6.20/share + buybacks $4-6B (~3-4%/yr share count reduction); net debt $50B (mostly Financial Services receivables); A2/A investment grade. FY2026 thesis: cycle bottoming + precision adoption + buybacks + dividend continuity. Risks: cycle extends, farmer income depression, trade/tariff dynamics.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Deere, AGCO, CNH and Ridley told July-August 2026 calls that fertiliser and diesel costs froze crop-grower equipment budgets while beef-funded livestock customers kept spending.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
New factory spending declines through Q1 2026. CAT at +62% YTD on commodity cycle, DE flat on agricultural compression — manufacturing 'renaissance' is uneven.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Trump's April 11 pledge to curb fertilizer gouging amid Iran tensions highlights producers like CF, MOS, and NTR as winners from sustained price surges, while ADM, DE, and AGCO face margin squeezes from cost-stressed farmers. Backed by FY2025 financials, CF tops conviction with 41% margins and cheap valuation.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US factory orders flat in February for the second month highlight manufacturing weakness, creating winners like diversified Honeywell and backlog-rich Caterpillar, while cyclical steelmaker Nucor and toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker lag. Analysis ranks six industrials/materials stocks by theme exposure, financials, and outlooks. Key: Favor resilience amid stagnation.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Potential Strait of Hormuz blockade risks broad inflation, favoring pricing power staples like PG, COST, and WMT while pressuring discretionary TGT and input-heavy CAT/DE. Analysis ranks PG highest conviction amid TTM metrics showing superior margins and growth resilience.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Anchored in a 2026 report on Nvidia AI, autonomous trucking, and $1T robotics growth, this analysis ranks NVDA, TSLA, ISRG, DE, PATH, and PLTR as key winners. Nvidia leads with GPU dominance, while Tesla's Optimus eyes trillion-dollar potential amid scrutiny.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Supreme Court oral arguments cast doubt on Trump's birthright citizenship EO, a potential win for labor-reliant firms like MAR, HLT, HD, and MCD amid staffing woes. Financials show margin pressure but resilient FCF; stable immigration supports growth. Bullish stance with eyes on ruling.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
US manufacturing's sharp expansion since 2022 boosts machinery demand for CAT, DE, and HON, while surging input costs erode margins at steelmakers NUE/CLF and chemicals firm DOW. CAT leads with record backlog and pricing leverage; CLF lags with negative margins.
