Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CX] Cemex Thesis 2026: US Cement Pricing Drives Mexico Volume Recovery
CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: CX) FY2025 revenue ~$15.5-16.5B (-3 to +3%) with adj. EPS ~$0.55-0.70 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$140-150/ton aggregate US cement pricing recovery cycle + selected post-2024 ~70-72M tonnes aggregate cement + ~16-17M tonnes aggregate ready-mix concrete + ~50-55M tonnes aggregate aggregates production volumes + selected continued post-October 2024 ~$3.4B aggregate selected various US/Mexico Real Estate divestitures completed under continued President + CEO Jaime Muguiro (~1-year tenure since November 2024). One of the world's largest cement + ready-mix concrete + aggregates producers. Founded 1906 as Cementos Mexicanos in Hidalgo Mexico (~119-year heritage); selected post-1976 Mexican Bolsa listing; selected post-2000 NYSE ADR listing; selected post-2000 ~$2.4B Southdown US acquisition; selected post-2005 ~$5.8B RMC Group UK + selected various European + selected various aggregate acquisition; selected post-2007 ~$15.3B Rinker Group Australia + US acquisition; selected post-2008-2018 ~$11B aggregate post-2008 financial restructuring debt reduction; selected post-October 2024 ~$3.4B aggregate selected various US/Mexico Real Estate divestitures completed; selected post-November 2024 Jaime Muguiro CEO appointment. Headquartered in San Pedro Garza García Nuevo León Mexico; ~44,000+ employees globally with ~$15.5-16.5B revenue. Four primary product segments: Cement (~50% ~$7.5-8.3B), Ready-Mix Concrete (~30% ~$4.5-5B), Aggregates (~15% ~$2.5-2.7B), Other (~5% ~$0.7-0.8B). US cement pricing recovery cycle: ~$140-150/ton aggregate US cement pricing FY2025 (vs ~$130/ton FY2024 + ~$120/ton FY2023); selected post-2024 ~+5-10% US cement pricing growth supporting selected continued post-2024 US infrastructure cycle + IIJA + selected various US construction recovery; selected ~30%+ aggregate CEMEX US revenue mix. Mexico + Central + South America recovery: ~30%+ aggregate CEMEX Mexico revenue mix (~$5B aggregate revenue); selected post-2024 Mexican infrastructure + housing cycle recovery; selected continued post-2024 Central + South America (~10% revenue) selected various recovery; selected continued post-2024 Europe + Middle East + Africa + Asia (~30%+ revenue) various. President + CEO Jaime Muguiro since November 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Maher Al-Haffar. Capital return: ~$0.04-0.05 annual dividend FY2025 (~+50-100% growth post-2024 dividend re-initiation); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (~$500-700M aggregate FY2024-2025); aggregate capital return ~$0.7-1B; net leverage ratio ~2.5-3.0x; investment-grade Baa3/BB+ credit rating (post-2024 upgrade pathway). FY2026 thesis: US cement pricing recovery cycle + Mexico volume + Central + South America recovery + Real Estate divestiture + deleveraging + selected potential post-2024 investment-grade credit upgrade pathway. Risks: US cement pricing sustainability, Mexican peso volatility, European + Middle East + Africa cement cycle, Holcim + Heidelberg Materials competition, EU + selected various carbon tax regulatory.