CPT
NYSE · Real Estate · REIT - Residential · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 5, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.19
- Revenue estimate
- $384.4M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Jul 31, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.18
- EPS estimate
- $0.31
- Revenue actual
- $392.9M
- Revenue estimate
- $392.9M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 7
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 1
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 4
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +116.3%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 2
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Hold
- Price target
- $117
- PT range
- $109 – $125
- Analysts
- 11
Q2 FY2026 · Jul 31, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
-
Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing
- Completed the sale of all 11 California operating communities, exiting the market after 28 years of operation. The sale proceeded nearly flawlessly, with proceeds meeting management expectations.
- Proceeds from the sale were allocated across three priority uses: repurchasing Camden common shares at a discount to net asset value (NAV), tax-efficient 1031 exchange acquisitions of newer multifamily properties in high-growth Sunbelt markets, and strengthening the balance sheet.
- As of the call, $694 million in shares have been repurchased, $645 million in acquisitions and $45 million in land sites have closed, $195 million in additional acquisitions/land are awarded, and only ~$200 million in 1031 acquisition targets remain to be identified.
- The rebalancing is projected to be FFO neutral in year one and accretive shortly after, as newer Sunbelt assets are expected to deliver faster growth than the disposed older California assets.
- Post-transaction, the portfolio's average age is reduced by one year, future recurring capex per unit is expected to decline by 5%, and bad debt is expected to drop by 10 basis points. The company will also eliminate high regulatory and advocacy costs that reduced California portfolio NOI by ~80 basis points annually.
-
Operating Fundamentals and Pricing Trends
- Broad, steady improvement in rental pricing trends across the portfolio, with accelerating sequential gains in Q2 2026: sequential signed blended lease rates improved 160 basis points in Q2, compared to 70 basis points a year prior.
- The share of communities with positive signed new leases rose from 20% in March 2026 to almost 50% in July 2026. System-wide average signed new leases turned positive on a handful of days in July 2026, the first time this has occurred in several years.
- Signed renewal gains increased by 170 basis points between March and July 2026. 65% of communities had positive effective blended rents in July, up from 50% in Q2, and 75% had positive signed blended rents in July, up from 55% in Q2.
- Occupancy has trended above budget, and turnover remains low, indicating strong resident satisfaction and retention. Concessions have moderated across most markets, with even high-supply markets like Austin seeing steady quarter-over-quarter occupancy improvement for six straight quarters.
-
Balance Sheet and Capital Structure
- Proceeds from the California sale were used to repay all outstanding balances on the company's line of credit and commercial paper program. Post-repayment, pro forma net debt to EBITDA stands at a strong 4.5x as of end of July 2026.
- A new one-year $350 million unsecured term loan was closed subsequent to quarter end to enhance liquidity for ongoing capital recycling and investment activity. The company maintains substantial liquidity for future acquisitions, development, and shareholder returns.
Guidance
- Full-year 2026 core FFO guidance midpoint is maintained at $6.75 per share, unchanged from initial guidance. Better-than-expected same-store NOI performance driven by lower operating expenses ($0.03 per share full-year benefit) is offset by timing of 2026 real estate transactions, resulting in no change to the core FFO midpoint.
- Third quarter 2026 core FFO guidance midpoint is $1.69 per share, a 1 cent sequential increase from Q2 2026's $1.68 core FFO per share. Positive drivers include a $0.03 benefit from improved same-store operations, $0.02 from incremental interest income on held cash, $0.02 from lower corporate expenses, and $0.01 from lower interest expense, partially offset by a 7 cent drag from the disposition of the California portfolio net of new acquisition contributions.
- Full-year 2026 same-store guidance excluding the former California portfolio is maintained for 0.5% revenue growth, while same-store NOI guidance is improved (upward revision) from a 0.9% decline to a 0.6% decline. Same-store expense growth guidance is revised downward from 3% to 2.5%, driven by better-than-expected utility performance, favorable trash contract pricing, positive insurance subrogation recoveries, and better-than-anticipated insurance renewal pricing.
- Management expects blended rent growth to be positive (around 1% to just over 1%) in both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, with year-over-year comparisons benefiting from the much weaker operating environment in Q4 2025.
Segment performance
Camden Property Trust disposed of its entire California portfolio in Q2 2026, so the only operating segment going forward is multifamily residential properties concentrated in high-growth Sunbelt markets. For the second quarter of 2026, core FFO was $1.68 per share, 1 cent above the midpoint of guidance, driven by stronger-than-anticipated occupancy across stabilized operating communities. Excluding the former California portfolio, Q2 2026 effective new leases were down 3.3%, renewals were up 2.8%, for a blended rate growth of -0.2% (a 220 basis point improvement from Q1 2026's -5.5% new lease growth). Average portfolio occupancy hit 95.7% in Q2 2026, up from 95.1% in Q1, with July 2026 occupancy reaching 95.8%. Annualized net turnover remained steady at 39% year-over-year, and move-outs for home purchases stayed low at 10.4% for the quarter. The completed California portfolio sale generated $1.625 billion in gross proceeds, with a trailing 12-month FFO yield of 5.6% and AFFO yield of 5.2% pre-Prop 13 adjustment for the buyer.
Risks & headwinds
- Multifamily markets are still working through the aftermath of a 50-year high in new supply, which has kept rent growth muted over the past several years and pressured pricing in some high-supply markets like Austin, Nashville, and Denver.
- High transaction costs and unfavorable regulatory environments (such as Los Angeles' mansion tax and California's high regulatory burdens) increase costs and reduce net returns for assets located in restrictive markets, which was a core driver of the decision to exit California entirely.
- Short-term daily and monthly rent data is volatile, and market reaction to short-term data can lead to excessive stock price volatility that does not reflect long-term fundamental trends, creating misalignment between operational performance and shareholder value.
- Construction and leasing of new development projects face ongoing market uncertainty, as original underwriting was completed before the recent period of high supply and muted rent growth.
Analyst Q&A
Q: How does 0.5% same-store revenue guidance break down across occupancy, bad debt, other income, and recent July pricing trends? / A: Management confirmed broad acceleration in positive pricing trends relative to last year, with strong near-term visibility into third quarter performance given that new leases are signed ~25 days before move-in and renewals ~60 days before occupancy. Occupancy is currently much stronger than expected, with no anticipated repeat of the sharp Q4 2025 occupancy drop. Bad debt is expected to hit 40 basis points (10 basis points lower than prior guidance, driven entirely by exiting California), other income is projected to grow ~3%, and back half blended growth is on track to hit 1% or higher. Recent signed trends provide high confidence in the full-year guidance.
Q: What is the company's current outlook on share repurchases as a use of capital, given that remaining 1031 acquisition capital is still outstanding? / A: Management frames capital allocation priorities as choosing the highest value use for shareholders: buying high-growth assets, funding development, upgrading the existing portfolio, and repurchasing shares. Management confirms that buying back Camden stock at its current ~15%+ discount to consensus NAV of ~$130 per share is the best available investment today. While the company is completing remaining 1031 acquisitions to maximize tax efficiency, additional asset sales could enable further share repurchases, and management is not done buying back shares, and will continue to lean into repurchases when the stock trades at a significant discount to NAV.
Q: Does the positive system-wide daily signed new lease growth in July mean new leases will be flat for the full quarter, or is daily volatility hiding continued negative full-month growth? / A: Daily new lease pricing does bounce around significantly, so full third quarter new lease growth will not be flat. Management reaffirmed prior guidance that positive new lease growth would begin to appear in individual days in Q3, which has now occurred, even if the full quarter will still show a slight decline. Peak leasing season winds down after late August, so management is encouraged by the directional trend, which represents the first visible positive new lease prints in several years and confirms a recovering market.
Q: Is the company planning additional exits from non-core markets to become a pure-play Sunbelt REIT after exiting California? / A: Management confirmed it has no plans to exit any of its existing 13 markets. It intends to only slightly reduce exposure to its two largest markets, DC Metro and Houston, for general portfolio allocation purposes, but will maintain a presence in both. Management is committed to all existing markets long-term, and continues to evaluate potential new markets for entry, prioritizing those with sustained long-term population and employment growth.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 5, 2026