Research · Sep 3, 2026
Costco FY2025 (Aug 2025) revenue ~$278B (+7-9%) with operating margin ~3.6% generating operating income ~$10.4B. Membership fees ~$5.85B essentially constitute the entire operating profit (gross margins capped at ~11% by deliberate value-pricing policy). Comparable sales (ex-fuel/currency) consistently +6-8%. Renewal rate 92.7% US/Canada — most loyal mass-market retail customer relationship. FY2026 thesis: Sept 2024 membership fee increase full-year flow-through adds ~8-10% membership fee revenue; warehouse expansion 25-30/year sustains; Kirkland Signature private-label ~30% of revenue continues category expansion; international expansion runway (China, India, Brazil) multi-decade greenfield; key risks: consumer trading-down, Sam's Club competitive pressure, premium valuation (~50-60x forward EPS).
Research · Apr 13, 2026
April's fuel-driven CPI surge signals persistent US inflation, favoring oil majors XOM and CVX with production growth, banks like JPM via NII, while pressuring airlines AAL and rails UNP. Ranked picks prioritize energy exposure at reasonable valuations amid higher-for-longer rates.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
With March CPI surprising at 3.3%, stagflation fears are resurfacing. We analyze six defensive companies across energy, gold, utilities, and consumer staples, finding that Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Newmont offer the best combination of direct inflation exposure, reasonable valuation, and strong dividends for a stagflationary environment.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Potential Strait of Hormuz blockade risks broad inflation, favoring pricing power staples like PG, COST, and WMT while pressuring discretionary TGT and input-heavy CAT/DE. Analysis ranks PG highest conviction amid TTM metrics showing superior margins and growth resilience.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz threats fuel $4 gas fears, supercharging refiner margins for MPC and VLO while hitting Ford's truck sales and testing Costco's pricing power. Integrated majors XOM and CVX offer balanced upside amid volatility.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
24 states' tariff challenge could refund duties and cut costs for import-reliant retailers. Target and Nike top the list for exposure and valuation, with Walmart and Costco as resilient plays amid steady growth.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Ahead of March PPI and GS/NFLX earnings, stagflation favors XOM, NEM, and COST over vulnerable banks and streamers. Energy and gold lead with strong FCF and margins, while GS faces growth headwinds. Ranked picks emphasize cheap inflation hedges.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
UMich economist flags stretched US consumers amid high prices, driving trade-down to discounters like WMT, COST, TGT while hurting NKE, SBUX. Staples PG holds steady. Ranked picks favor value plays with strong financials.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran conflict has exposed structural weaknesses in the US dollar's reserve currency status, creating winners and losers among US multinationals. Caterpillar and Apple stand to benefit most from dollar weakness due to their massive international revenue bases, while Costco faces margin pressure from higher import costs. Microsoft and Exxon present more nuanced cases with offsetting factors.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
As April 2026 data confirms building US inflation pressures, stagflation favors NEM, XOM, and COST most strongly among hedges like TIP, GLD, and XLU. Gold miner NEM leads with explosive growth, followed by energy titan XOM's value and Costco's resilience. Ranked plays offer clear portfolio tilts.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Stagflation trades are gaining traction as inflation sticks and growth slows; energy giants XOM and CVX top the list for cash flow, followed by gold miner NEM, staples PG/COST, and utility NEE. Ranked conviction favors commodity producers with strong balance sheets.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
U.S. gasoline at $4/gallon boosts refiners like VLO, MPC, and XOM via fat margins, while hurting Ford, Booking, and even Costco through curbed spending. Valero tops conviction for pure-play exposure at attractive multiples.
