Research · Sep 3, 2026
[COR] Cencora Thesis 2026: GLP-1 Distribution Volumes Drive Double-Digit EPS Compounding
Cencora's FY2025 validated pharmaceutical distribution's toll-booth economics: ~$328B revenue (+12%), adj. EPS ~$17.00 (+15%), driven by GLP-1 volume growth (~$58B, ~19% of US revenue) and specialty mix shift (41% of adj. gross profit). FY2026 thesis: GLP-1 growth moderating from 66% to sustained 25-35% annually, biosimilar wave accelerating, Alliance Healthcare delivering synergies — a combination sustaining 12-15% EPS growth and justifying the 20-25x multiple as a durable healthcare infrastructure compounder.