COOK
NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 4, 2026
- EPS estimate
- -$4.54
- Revenue estimate
- $79.4M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 5, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.53
- EPS estimate
- -$1.57
- Revenue actual
- $120.2M
- Revenue estimate
- $133.2M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 7
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 3
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 2
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- -38.8%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 6
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Hold
- Price target
- $62
- PT range
- $43 – $77
- Analysts
- 3
Q2 FY2026 · Aug 5, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
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Brand and Consumer Engagement • The Traeger brand remains healthy, with strong engagement from the existing installed base; Q2 2026 recorded an all-time high of over 267,000 connected cooks on July 4th, the second largest cooking day of the year. • New consumer acquisition growth improved at key retail accounts, driven by an updated influencer strategy that doubled impressions year-over-year to reach new audiences.
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Product Strategy and New Product Performance • Demand is shifting toward more accessible price points, so Traeger is expanding innovation across a broader range of offerings to grow its installed base and create future opportunities for consumables and upgrades. • Two new product lines, Westwood (accessible-price grill platform) and Irontop (griddle platform for everyday cooking), exceeded initial demand expectations and hold 4.8 to 5 star average customer reviews across major retail channels, expanding Traeger's addressable market.
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Distribution Expansion • Traeger announced a national distribution expansion into Lowe's, with initial load-in starting in Q4 2026 and a full launch of grills, griddles, accessories, and consumables planned for spring 2027. • The expansion is one of the most significant in Traeger's recent history, opening access to underpenetrated geographic markets and new incremental consumers, while also increasing scale to allow more investment in retail media and merchandising across all channel partners. Some offsets from evolving exclusive arrangements with existing partners are expected and have been planned for.
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Operational Transformation (Project Gravity) • Project Gravity, the company's business simplification and efficiency transformation initiative, continues to deliver on commitments. Year-to-date, the initiative has driven improved working capital efficiency, with inventory reduced to $76 million at the end of Q2 2026 from $116 million a year prior, driven by SKU rationalization and business simplification. • The initiative delivered expense discipline that offset lower revenue, driving adjusted EBITDA up to $17 million in Q2 2026 from $14 million in Q2 2025. Traeger remains on track to capture $50 million in total value from Project Gravity in fiscal 2026.
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Financial Position • Traeger generated $26 million in free cash flow in Q2 2026, ending the quarter with $60 million in cash and cash equivalents and a total healthy liquidity position of $188 million, with undrawn credit facilities providing additional flexibility.
Guidance
• Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was revised downward to a range of $435 million to $465 million, from the prior guidance range of $465 million to $485 million. The downward revision reflects greater-than-expected softness in the grill business and larger near-term channel headwinds from the Lowe's distribution expansion than originally anticipated; the guidance range is wider than prior to reflect increased timing variability. • Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full-year 2026 was maintained at the prior range of $57 million to $67 million, as cost savings and profitability initiatives under Project Gravity and lower-than-anticipated tariff costs substantially offset the impact of lower revenue. • Full-year 2026 gross margin guidance was raised to a range of 40% to 41%, reflecting a lower tariff impact on grill products than previously forecast when guidance was affirmed in Q1 2026. • Free cash flow guidance for full-year 2026 was reiterated at a minimum of $30 million; year-to-date free cash flow through Q2 is already $41 million, with Q4 2026 cash generation expected to be impacted by an increase in receivables from the initial Lowe's load-in that will convert to cash in early 2027. • Traeger expects approximately two-thirds of remaining 2026 full-year revenue, and substantially all remaining adjusted EBITDA, to be generated in Q4 2026, due to lapping a large order timing shift from Q3 2025 and seasonal demand patterns aligned with the Lowe's load-in. • Management reaffirmed confidence that Traeger is positioned to return to profitable growth in 2027 as investments mature and channel dynamics normalize.
Segment performance
In Q2 2026, total company revenue was $120 million, representing a 17% year-over-year decline. Breakdown by segment: 1. Grills: Revenue decreased 17% year-over-year to $62 million, accounting for ~51.7% of total Q2 revenue. Unit volume growth was more than offset by lower average selling prices, driven by the launch of new lower-priced product lines and intentional profitability-focused actions under Project Gravity. 2. Consumables: Revenue was $33 million, a 10% year-over-year decline, accounting for ~27.5% of total Q2 revenue. The decline was driven by seasonal ordering shifts for wood pellets and a difficult comparison against prior-year new channel load-in for food consumables. 3. Accessories: Revenue decreased 26% year-over-year to $26 million, accounting for ~21.7% of total Q2 revenue. The decline was largely driven by lower sales of grills. Gross profit for the quarter was $47 million (down from $57 million in Q2 2025), with a gross margin of 39.5% (flat 30 basis points year-over-year).
Risks & headwinds
• The broader outdoor grill industry has not yet seen a normalization of replacement cycles following pandemic-era demand pull-forward in 2020-2021, with current dollar sell-through remaining roughly flat year-over-year as the industry waits for replacement demand to reactivate. • High prices driven by ongoing tariffs and general inflation have created demand elasticity, with ongoing softness observed for grills priced above $1,000, creating near-term pressure on average selling prices and revenue. • The Lowe's distribution expansion has changed near-term channel dynamics, with some existing retail partners adjusting their assortment and marketing investments in the Traeger brand, creating incremental near-term revenue pressure that was larger than originally anticipated. • Grill promotion performance in the current quarter came in below expectations, contributing to the greater-than-expected softness in the grill business that drove the downward revenue guidance revision. • Ongoing increases in transportation and input costs create pressure on margins, offset partially by tariff refunds and cost savings initiatives.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Where does Traeger stand in the broader grill cycle, what is the lowes revenue contribution to 2026 guidance, and how sustainable are current EBITDA margins heading into 2027?
A: The overall grill industry is currently roughly flat year-over-year, consistent with Traeger's own sell-through performance. Replacement cycle demand from pandemic-era purchases has not yet normalized after industry price increases reduced unit volume in 2025, but consumer engagement with outdoor cooking remains resilient, and management expects the cycle to normalize over time. Lowe's load-in is a long-term strategic growth opportunity, and Traeger is not disclosing specific 2026 load-in amounts; lower revenue guidance reflects the expected transition impacts, not a change to the long-term net positive outlook for the partnership. Project Gravity cost savings are driving the ability to maintain EBITDA guidance despite lower revenue; Traeger is on track to deliver $50 million in value capture in 2026 as part of the multi-year transformation, and management expects EBITDA expansion as revenue grows in future years.
Q: What is driving the upward gross margin guidance revision, how will Traeger manage cost headwinds and maintain current price points heading into 2027 when the one-time IEPA tariff refund tailwinds will no longer exist?
A: The upward gross margin guidance reflects the $16 million full-year IEPA tariff benefit, partially offset by already reflected higher transportation and input costs. Tariff impacts have settled to a rate that is roughly flat compared to prior forecasts, so Traeger is maintaining current price levels for its product line. Demand softness is concentrated in grills above $1000, while products below $1000 show resilience, a trend Traeger has aligned its product strategy with by bringing innovation to lower accessible price points. Management expects consumers will adapt to current price points over the medium term, and Traeger will build its product and margin strategy around the new tariff-inclusive cost structure.
Q: When will the multi-year trend of declining average selling prices for grills stabilize, and what product actions is Traeger taking to support this?
A: ASP declines are driven by both macro consumer pressure toward lower price points for discretionary big-ticket goods and intentional product strategy to fill gaps at accessible price points to expand Traeger's addressable market. The new Westwood line, priced at $699 to $799, brings connected cooking innovation previously only available at higher price points to the mid-range below $1000, creating a clear step-up path from entry-level models that should help stabilize ASP over time. Full-year sell-in unit volumes are expected to be flat year-over-year despite revenue pressure, so lower ASP is bringing new consumers into Traeger's ecosystem, who will generate future revenue from pellets, accessories, and upgrades.
Q: What specific near-term channel headwinds from distribution expansion drove the downward guidance revision, and how should we model the one-time IEPA tariff benefit for 2026 vs 2027?
A: The distribution-related headwinds refer to existing retail partners adjusting their assortments and marketing investment levels in the Traeger brand following the announcement of the Lowe's expansion; the largest driver of the Q2 revenue miss was still grill softness from underperforming promotions. The full $16 million IEPA tariff benefit is included in 2026 guidance, with $7 million of that amount directly related to 2026 sales. For 2027 modeling, the full $16 million one-time benefit will not recur, so it should be backed out of baseline 2027 EBITDA forecasts.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 4, 2026