Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CNH] CNH Industrial Thesis 2026: Agricultural Equipment Cycle Drives Construction Recovery
CNH Industrial NV (NYSE: CNH) FY2025 revenue ~$17.5-18.5B (-15 to -8%) with adj. EPS ~$0.85-1.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture revenue (~75%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction revenue (~17% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue (~5-6% aggregate revenue mix) + selected post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking + selected various Iveco Group spinoff post-January 2022 separation under continued President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure as CNH Industrial CEO). One of the largest US + global agricultural + construction equipment manufacturers. Founded September 2013 as CNH Industrial NV via 2013 Case New Holland + Iveco Industrial Group merger; selected post-1842 Case Corporation predecessor heritage; selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing; selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff separation; selected post-July 2024 Gerrit Marx CEO appointment. Headquartered in Basildon UK + London; ~37,000+ employees globally with ~$17.5-18.5B revenue. Three primary business segments: Agriculture (~75%+ ~$13.5-14.0B), Construction (~17% ~$3.0-3.3B), Financial Services (~5-6% ~$1.0-1.2B). Geographic mix: North America ~50%+ + EMEA ~30% + LatAm + APAC + selected various ~20%. Agricultural equipment cycle: ~$13.5-14.0B Agriculture revenue; selected primary Case IH + New Holland market leadership; trough cycle (post-2023 ~$23B peak vs ~$17.5-18.5B FY2025 trough). Construction + Financial Services: ~$3.0-3.3B Construction + ~$1.0-1.2B Financial Services. President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Oddone Incisa. Capital return + Iveco spinoff: post-January 2022 ~$10B+ Iveco Group spinoff separation; ~$0.42 annual dividend FY2025 (~10-year continuous dividend track); ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$700M-1B aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$1.2-1.7B; net leverage ratio ~2.5-3.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Agricultural equipment cyclical recovery + Construction + Financial Services recovery + selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff focus + ~$0.42 annual dividend + ~10-year continuous dividend track + ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.2-1.7B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-January 2022 deleveraging + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: agricultural equipment trough cycle recovery, Deere + AGCO + Kubota competition, US farm income + commodity pricing, international, Iveco spinoff considerations.