[CNH] CNH Industrial Thesis 2026: Agricultural Equipment Cycle Drives Construction Recovery
CNH Industrial NV (NYSE: CNH) FY2025 revenue ~$17.5-18.5B (-15 to -8%) with adj. EPS ~$0.85-1.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture revenue (~75%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment) + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction revenue (~17% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue (~5-6% aggregate revenue mix) + selected post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking + selected various Iveco Group spinoff post-January 2022 separation under continued President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure as CNH Industrial CEO). One of the largest US + global agricultural + construction equipment manufacturers. Founded September 2013 as CNH Industrial NV via 2013 Case New Holland + Iveco Industrial Group merger; selected post-1842 Case Corporation predecessor heritage; selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing; selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff separation; selected post-July 2024 Gerrit Marx CEO appointment. Headquartered in Basildon UK + London; ~37,000+ employees globally with ~$17.5-18.5B revenue. Three primary business segments: Agriculture (~75%+ ~$13.5-14.0B), Construction (~17% ~$3.0-3.3B), Financial Services (~5-6% ~$1.0-1.2B). Geographic mix: North America ~50%+ + EMEA ~30% + LatAm + APAC + selected various ~20%. Agricultural equipment cycle: ~$13.5-14.0B Agriculture revenue; selected primary Case IH + New Holland market leadership; trough cycle (post-2023 ~$23B peak vs ~$17.5-18.5B FY2025 trough). Construction + Financial Services: ~$3.0-3.3B Construction + ~$1.0-1.2B Financial Services. President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Oddone Incisa. Capital return + Iveco spinoff: post-January 2022 ~$10B+ Iveco Group spinoff separation; ~$0.42 annual dividend FY2025 (~10-year continuous dividend track); ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$700M-1B aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$1.2-1.7B; net leverage ratio ~2.5-3.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Agricultural equipment cyclical recovery + Construction + Financial Services recovery + selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff focus + ~$0.42 annual dividend + ~10-year continuous dividend track + ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.2-1.7B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-January 2022 deleveraging + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: agricultural equipment trough cycle recovery, Deere + AGCO + Kubota competition, US farm income + commodity pricing, international, Iveco spinoff considerations.
[CNH] CNH Industrial Thesis 2026: Agricultural Equipment Cycle Drives Construction Recovery
Key Takeaways
- CNH Industrial NV (NYSE: CNH) FY2025 revenue ~$17.5-18.5B (-15 to -8% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$0.85-1.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture revenue (~75%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment + selected various) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction revenue (~17% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue (~5-6% aggregate revenue mix) plus selected post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking + selected various Iveco Group spinoff post-January 2022 separation + selected various restructuring under continued President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure as CNH Industrial CEO; ex-Iveco Group CEO 2022-2024 + ex-CNH Industrial Commercial Vehicles + ex-various roles + ~25-year industry career; succeeded post-July 2024 Scott Wine retirement).
- Agricultural equipment cycle: ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture revenue FY2025 (~75%+ aggregate revenue mix); selected continued post-2024 selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment market leadership; selected continued post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking (selected post-2023 ~$23B aggregate revenue peak vs ~$17.5-18.5B FY2025 trough); selected continued post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution; FY2026 catalyst: continued cyclical recovery + selected potential post-2024 agricultural equipment cycle inflection.
- Construction + Financial Services: ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction revenue (~17% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment) + ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue (~5-6% aggregate revenue mix); selected continued post-2024 selected various Construction equipment recovery + selected various Financial Services support; selected continued post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution.
- Capital return:
$0.42 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.105/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+0% growth post-2024 ~$0.42 dividend; selected ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2013 NYSE listing + selected post-Iveco spinoff dividend re-initiation); selected$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($700M-1B aggregate FY2025); ~$1.2-1.7B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-January 2022 net leverage ratio ~2.5-3.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA target; investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected continued post-trough cyclical recovery.
Company Background
CNH Industrial NV (NYSE: CNH) is one of the largest US + global agricultural + construction equipment manufacturers with FY2025 revenue ~$17.5-18.5B (-15 to -8% YoY) and adj. EPS ~$0.85-1.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue + selected continued post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff separation + selected post-July 2024 Gerrit Marx CEO appointment + selected various trough cycle inventory destocking. The company employs ~37,000+ globally with operations across selected major US + Brazil + Italy + UK + Netherlands + selected various.
Founded September 2013 as CNH Industrial NV via 2013 Case New Holland + Iveco Industrial Group merger creating CNH Industrial (~12-year heritage; selected post-2013 closing creating selected major US + global agricultural + construction + commercial vehicle conglomerate); selected post-September 2013 NYSE listing transition; selected post-1842 founding heritage of Case Corporation predecessor (selected post-1842 Jerome Case + Case New Holland predecessor agricultural equipment; ~183-year aggregate heritage); selected post-1996 Fiat agricultural + selected various consolidation; selected post-January 2022 ~$10B+ aggregate Iveco Group spinoff separation creating selected pure-play agricultural + construction equipment focus + Iveco Group separate listing; selected post-July 2024 Gerrit Marx CEO appointment (selected post-Scott Wine retirement); selected post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking + selected various restructuring.
Headquartered in Basildon UK + London (with Burr Ridge Illinois + Turin Italy selected major operations); ~37,000+ employees globally with ~$17.5-18.5B revenue. Three primary business segments: Agriculture (~75%+ revenue ~$13.5-14.0B — selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment + selected various Steyr + Iveco Capital + selected various), Construction (~17% revenue ~$3.0-3.3B — selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment), Financial Services (~5-6% revenue ~$1.0-1.2B — selected various Customer Financing + selected various). Geographic mix: North America 50%+ revenue ($8.8-9.3B) + EMEA 30% ($5.3-5.6B) + Latin America + APAC + selected various 20% ($3.5-3.7B).
President + CEO Gerrit Marx since July 2024 (~1-year tenure as CNH Industrial CEO); succeeded Scott Wine (CEO 2021-July 2024 retired who led CNH Industrial through post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff separation); Marx ex-Iveco Group CEO 2022-2024 + ex-CNH Industrial Commercial Vehicles + ex-various roles + ~25-year industry career; selected continued strategic priorities include Agricultural equipment leadership + selected continued post-2024 selected various trough cycle recovery + selected continued post-2024 Construction + Financial Services recovery + selected continued post-2024 various restructuring + selected continued post-2024 capital return acceleration. CFO Oddone Incisa (since 2014; ex-various CNH Industrial roles + ~25-year company career).
Agricultural Equipment Cycle
CNH Industrial Agriculture franchise:
- Agriculture revenue:
75%+ aggregate revenue ($13.5-14.0B) - Case IH + New Holland: selected primary agricultural equipment market leadership
- Trough cycle: selected post-2023 ~$23B aggregate revenue peak vs ~$17.5-18.5B FY2025 trough
- Selected continued post-2024 inventory destocking: continued post-2024 selected various
- Selected continued post-2024 cyclical recovery: continued post-2024 selected various
- Selected continued post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued Agricultural equipment cycle + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Construction + Financial Services
CNH Industrial Construction + Financial Services franchise:
- Construction revenue:
17% aggregate revenue ($3.0-3.3B) - Case Construction + New Holland Construction: selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment
- Financial Services revenue:
5-6% aggregate revenue ($1.0-1.2B) - Selected continued post-2024 Construction equipment recovery: continued post-2024
- Selected continued post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued Construction + Financial Services + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution.
Capital Return + Iveco Spinoff
CNH Industrial capital return + selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff:
- Iveco spinoff: post-January 2022 ~$10B+ aggregate Iveco Group spinoff separation
- Ordinary dividend:
$0.42 annual FY2025 ($0.105/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+0% growth post-2024 ~$0.42 dividend; selected ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2013 NYSE listing) - Buybacks:
$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($700M-1B aggregate FY2025) - Aggregate capital return: ~$1.2-1.7B FY2025
- Net leverage: net debt-to-adj. EBITDA ~2.5-3.0x FY2025
- Investment grade: Baa2/BBB+ credit rating
FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.
Risks
- Agricultural equipment cyclical: continued post-2024 agricultural equipment trough cycle recovery sustainability
- Selected various competitive intensity: Deere & Company + AGCO + Kubota + selected various US + global agricultural + construction equipment competitive
- Selected various US farm income: continued post-2024 US farm income + selected various commodity pricing cycle
- Selected various international: continued post-2024 various international agricultural + construction
- Selected post-January 2022 Iveco spinoff: continued post-January 2022 selected various spinoff considerations
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.5-18.5B | $19.83B | $24.69B | $24.04B | $18.0-19.5B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $1.95-2.30B | $2.31B | $3.45B | $3.20B | $2.20-2.65B |
| Adj. EPS (USD) | $0.85-1.10 | $1.07 | $1.85 | $1.60 | $1.10-1.40 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 11-12% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12-14% |
| Agriculture revenue | $13.5-14.0B | $15.8B | $19.5B | $18.5B | $14.0-15.0B |
| Capital return | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | $0.42 | $0.42 | $0.42-0.50 |
| Buybacks | $700M-1B | $1.0B | $700M-1B |
| Total return | $1.2-1.7B | $1.5B | $1.2-1.7B |
| Net leverage | 2.5-3.0x | 2.7x | 2.3-2.8x |
Market Evaluation
CNH Industrial trades at selected ~10-13x FY2026 P/E discount vs Deere & Company (~14-17x) + AGCO (~10-13x) + Kubota (~13-16x) + selected various US + global agricultural + construction equipment peers reflecting selected continued ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture + selected continued post-2024 trough cycle inventory destocking + selected continued post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff separation + selected ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2013 NYSE listing. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Agricultural equipment cyclical recovery from selected post-2024 trough cycle; (2) selected continued post-2024 Construction + Financial Services recovery; (3) ~$0.42 dividend + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration; (4) ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.2-1.7B aggregate annual capital return; (5) selected continued post-January 2022 deleveraging toward ~2.3-2.8x.
Agricultural Equipment + Iveco Spinoff Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive
CNH Industrial Agricultural equipment franchise + selected post-January 2022 ~$10B+ aggregate Iveco Group spinoff separation creating selected pure-play agricultural + construction equipment focus represent selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs traditional US + global agricultural + construction equipment peers (Deere & Company + AGCO + Kubota + selected various). Selected ~$13.5-14.0B aggregate Agriculture revenue FY2025 (~75%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment + selected various Steyr + Iveco Capital + selected various) + selected continued post-2024 selected primary Case IH + New Holland agricultural equipment market leadership + selected continued post-2024 selected various trough cycle inventory destocking (selected post-2023 ~$23B aggregate revenue peak vs ~$17.5-18.5B FY2025 trough) + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution supports selected primary Agricultural equipment cycle thesis. Selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.3B aggregate Construction revenue (~17% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Case Construction + New Holland Construction equipment) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate Financial Services revenue (~5-6% aggregate revenue mix) + selected continued post-2024 selected various Construction equipment recovery + selected various Financial Services support supports selected continued post-2024 Construction + Financial Services franchise. Selected post-January 2022 ~$10B+ aggregate Iveco Group spinoff separation creating selected pure-play agricultural + construction equipment focus + selected post-July 2024 Gerrit Marx CEO appointment (selected ex-Iveco Group CEO 2022-2024 + ~25-year industry career) supports selected continued post-January 2022 strategic priorities. Selected ~$0.42 annual dividend FY2025 (selected ~10-year continuous dividend track post-2013 NYSE listing) + selected ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program supports selected continued post-2024 capital return optionality. FY2026 catalyst: continued Agricultural equipment + Construction + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution.
FY2026 thesis: Agricultural equipment cyclical recovery + Construction + Financial Services recovery + selected post-January 2022 Iveco Group spinoff focus + ~$0.42 annual dividend + ~10-year continuous dividend track + ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.2-1.7B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-January 2022 deleveraging + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.
