Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CHRW] C.H. Robinson Thesis 2026: AI Agents Go Live as Brokerage Productivity Targets Raised
C.H. Robinson Worldwide FY25 revenue $16.23B (-8% on rate compression, not volume); op income $795M (+19%); NI $587M (+26%); EPS $4.83 (+25%). Q4 NAST volume +1% YoY (truckload +3%); LTL volume grew 8 consecutive quarters. NAST AGP margin +20bp YoY despite spot trucking cost pressure. Global Forwarding gross margins +120bp through revenue management; centralized model with lean AI-enabled processes. AI agents in production for missed LTL pickups. Personnel expenses Q4 down 8.2% YoY ex restructuring. Restructuring charges $15.2M Q4. Double-digit volume in retail + automotive verticals. FY26 guide: personnel $1.25-$1.35B; SG&A $540-$590M; tax 18-20%; capex $75-$85M; $6 EPS target with NO market growth driven by AI + lean operating model + share gain + cost reduction.