Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CART] Instacart Thesis 2026: Grocery Advertising Platform Hits $1B as Caper Cart Opens In-Store Channel
Instacart's FY2025 advertising revenue crossed $1.15B (+23%), now 31% of total revenue and the primary margin driver — each ad dollar adds ~80 cents of EBITDA vs ~5-8 cents for the marginal delivery transaction. Adj. EBITDA ~$900M at ~24% margin, GAAP profitable at ~$450M. FY2026 thesis: does advertising penetration of GTV continue growing toward Amazon's ~5% level (vs ~3.1% today), and does Caper Cart's in-store advertising channel scale beyond early pilots to create a new CPG media revenue stream?