Research · Sep 3, 2026
Burlington Stores (BURL) FY25 (Jan 2026) revenue $11.567B (+8.9%); adj EPS $9.51 (+22%); EBITDA $1.267B (+21%); EBIT margin +80bp FY25; FCF $172M. Q4 FY25: total sales +11%, comp +4%, EBIT +100bp. 104 net new stores FY25 (1,115+ total). Burlington 2.0: Merchandising 2.0 (agile sourcing, tariff pivot drove 5% Q2 comp); Stores 2.0 (50% fleet retrofitted, sales lift). JOANN bankruptcy 46 sites acquired for FY26. FY26 guide: total sales +8-10%; ≥110 net new stores; comp +1-3%; EBIT margin flat to +20bp; adj EPS $10.95-$11.45 (+15-20%); CapEx net ~$875M. Q1 FY26 guide: total +9-11%, comp +2-4%, EPS $1.60-$1.75. 2028 long-range plan target: ~$1.6B operating income (implying 4-5% avg comp + 110+ stores/yr). Off-price structural tailwinds: value-seeking consumer, tariff dislocations as buying opportunity. Risks: comp deceleration, tariffs, TJX/Ross competition, CapEx intensity, consumer spending.
Research · Sep 3, 2026
Five Below booked $170M and Petco $6.8M in IEEPA tariff refunds; both are routing part of that cash into stores and merchandise instead of price cuts.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
TJX leads the off-price retail group with 12% operating margins and 54% ROE, while Ollie's offers the best value at 23x forward P/E with double-digit revenue growth. Five Below commands the richest valuation despite the weakest earnings track record, making it the least attractive risk/reward in the group.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Burlington and Ollie's carry significantly higher gross margins (41.9% and 40.3%) than TJX and Ross (31.1% and 27.9%), but the larger players convert more efficiently — TJX and Ross deliver 12.0% and 11.9% operating margins respectively versus Burlington's 8.9%. Ross emerges as the quiet margin leader with a best-in-class 9.7% FCF margin, while Burlington's 21.6% EBITDA growth signals the fastest margin expansion trajectory in the group.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has the most store growth runway among off-price retailers, with ~133% unit growth potential from 559 to 1,300+ stores, the highest operating margins (11.2%), and the cleanest balance sheet (0.37x debt/equity). Five Below has ~100% remaining growth to 3,500 stores but faces margin pressure from its Five Beyond format shift, while Burlington is the most mature with ~80% unit growth left and the highest leverage.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Ollie's 40.3% TTM gross margin ranks between Burlington (41.9%) and well above TJX (31.1%) and Ross (27.9%), but OLLI's quarterly margins compressed 180bps YoY in Q4 2025 while TJX expanded by 140bps. The divergence highlights OLLI's vulnerability to tightening closeout supply versus TJX's diversified sourcing model, with operating margin (10.2% vs TJX's 13.0%) further constrained by SGA deleveraging at smaller scale.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Ollie's operates 645 stores across 34 states with distribution infrastructure supporting up to 750 locations, targeting 1,300+ long-term. The Deep South (backfill), Upper Midwest (Princeton DC unlock), and Mountain West (long-term frontier) represent the highest-potential whitespace regions, supported by a capital-efficient unit model (~$1M investment, ~2-year payback) and an unprecedented bankruptcy-acquisition pipeline that delivered 63 of 86 new stores in FY2025.
