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BAERW

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Warrant

NASDAQ · Industrials · Security & Protection Services · US

$0.17
−6.59%
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Analyst consensus

Next report date
Nov 16, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.61
Revenue estimate
$83.6M

Latest reported

Last report date
Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
-$0.13
EPS estimate
-$0.03
Revenue actual
$30.5M
Revenue estimate
$37.0M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
4
EPS misses (12Q)
2
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
-74.1%
Revenue beats (12Q)
4
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q3 FY2025 · Nov 7, 2025

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

  • Operationally, the year has been strong with record task orders through October, utilization up nearly 10% year-over-year across the fleet, multi-mission aircraft flight hours nearly doubled, and Super Scoopers recognized for effectiveness. - Financially, surpassed annual revenue guidance in the first 9 months and is on track for the high end of adjusted EBITDA guidance. - Completed a $49 million sale-leaseback of campus facilities and a $331 million expanded debt facility. - FMS contributed $2.4M in Q3 with contracting opportunities with the DoD. - Ignis Technologies linked real-time sensor imagery with its app and live streamed video during the Dragon Bravo Fire. - Spanish Scoopers' return to service work progressing, with the first 2 aircraft flying in Portugal and the 3rd and 4th scheduled for early 2026. - Federal initiatives on wildland firefighting system creating market shift, with 2026 budget calling for a threefold increase in funding to $3.7B.

Guidance

  • Remains on track to end 2025 at the higher end of the adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $42 million to $48 million. - Revenue has exceeded the previous top end of guidance and is now expected between $118 million and $123 million. - Expect continued improvement in cash provided by operating activities in 2025.

Segment performance

In the third quarter of 2025, revenue reached a record $67.9 million, up 5% from $64.5 million in the third quarter of 2024. Excluding revenue from return to service work on Spanish Scoopers, ongoing operations revenue grew 5% to approximately $65.7 million. For the first 9 months of 2025, revenue was $114.3 million, a 38% increase from $83 million in the same period of 2024. Excluding return to service work, revenue was $101.1 million, up 30%. FMS contributed $2.4 million in revenue during the third quarter.

Risks & headwinds

  • Revenue in FMS business has seen delays due to federal budgeting uncertainties in the short term.

Analyst Q&A

Q: Nice quarter. So you have about $14 million free cash flow year-to-date. How much are you tracking towards by end of year? And what do you plan to use the cash for?

A: Yes, Austin, I think we'll end the year around that same amount or maybe a little north of that. As you know, fourth quarter, we go into the maintenance cycle. And typically, in the fourth quarter, we don't see as much revenue certainly as we saw in the third quarter or even the second quarter. So I expect it to remain at about that level. And what we'll be doing with that free cash flow is, again, we'll be looking at our fleet expansion opportunities in conjunction with the new credit facility and how best to deploy that capital.

Q: And now that the credit facility is in place and the sale leaseback is complete, do you expect the Spanish scoopers to be staying in Europe or coming to the U.S.A.?

A: That's a great question, Austin. We're exploring all avenues there. I can say that with that now being a reality, and us having those discussions right now to see how quickly we can move on that. We're going to go with kind of the best both strategic and economic benefit for us, and we'll run all those paths. It's hard for me to predict with a crystal ball what that's going to be. But I will say that the beauty of it is they're a very scarce asset and in high demand. So that gives us a lot of optionality to have those aircraft, especially with those two being airworthy and flying a partial season already, Bridger sees a lot of opportunity to put those to work. And we'll know a lot more through the winter months as we nail down the best opportunity. And the beauty of it is we have optionality of where we place them

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 16, 2026